{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5318898b-9269-48d8-808e-b835c29f4d8e", "symbol": "9840", "name": "SPDR Gold Shares", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.736, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.234, "architecture_energy": 54.203, "architecture_maturity": 63.514, "architecture_confidence": 69.858, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.51, "rotation_up": 26.19, "upward_expansion": 16.54, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 51.62, "downward_expansion": 77.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 379.02667, 378.936367, 392.018098, 404.765162 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 393.399994, "trend_reference": 421.046665, "distance_from_trend": -0.065662, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 352.190805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.990438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115558, "excess_performance": -0.081976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065662, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007449, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123098, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.121718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 0.029994, "balance": 0.121718, "dry_up": 0.111728, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033964, "annualized_volatility": 0.244437, "from_high_reference": -0.235226, "from_low_reference": 0.282687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 421.046665, "fair_value_reference": 352.190805, "structural_low": 366.100006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.024033, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.132573, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.024033, "worst_return": -0.024033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027691, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 248.5, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 241.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"trend": 425.796664, "fair_value": 350.324691, "relative_strength": 7.356134, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.958018, "energy": 95.696784, "activity_lines": [ 387.026672, 399.745457, 414.810476, 422.848816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 382.799988, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 468.8, "trend": 425.596664, "fair_value": 350.720731, "relative_strength": 7.630731, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.119142, "energy": 88.542286, "activity_lines": [ 383.24, 394.969091, 410.465714, 420.074837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 376.700012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 468.8, "trend": 425.013331, "fair_value": 351.033735, "relative_strength": 1.929989, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.539891, "energy": 89.737988, "activity_lines": [ 379.560004, 389.950912, 405.896191, 416.920214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 366.100006, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 432.0, "trend": 423.966665, "fair_value": 351.213095, "relative_strength": -2.808448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.610873, "energy": 92.94571, "activity_lines": [ 374.506671, 383.827276, 400.715239, 413.119355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 371.700012, "volume": 19, "typical_volume": 347.55, "trend": 422.596665, "fair_value": 351.454118, "relative_strength": -3.23154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.204654, "energy": 79.071166, "activity_lines": [ 372.51334, 379.930914, 396.593336, 409.747312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 373.600006, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 338.15, "trend": 421.626665, "fair_value": 351.711628, "relative_strength": -6.437097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.157777, "energy": 65.719206, "activity_lines": [ 372.620007, 377.258187, 393.140956, 406.586238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 393.399994, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 333.4, "trend": 421.046665, "fair_value": 352.190805, "relative_strength": -0.990438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.234066, "energy": 54.20257, "activity_lines": [ 379.02667, 378.936367, 392.018098, 404.765162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }