{ "ticker": { "uuid": "531949cd-ef81-4887-ae29-1675323dba33", "symbol": "BEES3", "name": "Banestes S.A - Banco do Estado do Esp\u00edrito Santo", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.709, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.587, "architecture_energy": 22.83, "architecture_maturity": 26.687, "architecture_confidence": 73.256, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.3, "rotation_up": 54.1, "upward_expansion": 68.27, "deceleration": 53.31, "rotation_down": 11.87, "downward_expansion": 6.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.710379, 8.663531, 8.680526, 8.662455 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.78, "trend_reference": 8.572009, "distance_from_trend": 0.024264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.306498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.111277, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084034, "excess_performance": 0.141082, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024264, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041113, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065057, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084034, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.944444, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79200, "relative_activity": 2.038085, "balance": 0.944444, "dry_up": 1.254503, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031692, "annualized_volatility": 0.150172, "from_high_reference": -0.059894, "from_low_reference": 0.23769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.572009, "fair_value_reference": 7.306498, "structural_low": 8.08956, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001019, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003436, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.089863, "worst_return": -0.035318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.082623, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060195, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.107103, "worst_return": 0.004333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.178408, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.360596, "worst_return": 0.044434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.33096, 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"activity_lines": [ 8.645639, 8.612941, 8.671911, 8.635111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.711451, "volume": 39300, "typical_volume": 38080.0, "trend": 8.546746, "fair_value": 7.292783, "relative_strength": 0.044082, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.03521, "energy": 19.027686, "activity_lines": [ 8.676898, 8.63426, 8.673528, 8.647406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.78, "volume": 79200, "typical_volume": 38860.0, "trend": 8.572009, "fair_value": 7.306498, "relative_strength": 4.111277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.587297, "energy": 22.830482, "activity_lines": [ 8.710379, 8.663531, 8.680526, 8.662455 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }