{ "ticker": { "uuid": "531cc78d-56ce-44f2-a014-bfd1e155e15e", "symbol": "HISARMETAL", "name": "Hisar Metal Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.279, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.373, "architecture_energy": 24.785, "architecture_maturity": 24.869, "architecture_confidence": 87.907, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.28, "rotation_up": 15.22, "upward_expansion": 3.82, "deceleration": 45.97, "rotation_down": 48.86, "downward_expansion": 70.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.222667, 151.739455, 152.032144, 152.141162 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 152.020004, "trend_reference": 153.690001, "distance_from_trend": -0.010866, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 182.16295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.335037, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0387, "excess_performance": 0.005009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017477, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15917, "relative_activity": 1.762768, "balance": 0.662623, "dry_up": 0.809315, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050844, "annualized_volatility": 0.301406, "from_high_reference": -0.253598, "from_low_reference": 0.216257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.690001, "fair_value_reference": 182.16295, "structural_low": 124.989998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.004085, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004989, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.277869, "worst_return": -0.120727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.067575, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019985, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175037, "worst_return": -0.125858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004568, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030607, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.260692, "worst_return": -0.041341, "sufficient": 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153.226259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 154.410004, "volume": 6077, "typical_volume": 15925.15, "trend": 154.836334, "fair_value": 182.436287, "relative_strength": -5.724888, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.717369, "energy": 10.157459, "activity_lines": [ 154.248666, 153.737819, 152.484097, 153.194195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 147.490005, "volume": 3574, "typical_volume": 15652.75, "trend": 154.409001, "fair_value": 182.422846, "relative_strength": -7.324822, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.009947, "energy": 18.418442, "activity_lines": [ 151.830668, 152.700547, 152.160668, 152.720238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 147.289993, "volume": 3663, "typical_volume": 14893.85, "trend": 153.876668, "fair_value": 182.436186, "relative_strength": -9.10878, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.920164, "energy": 29.536046, "activity_lines": [ 149.959332, 151.743273, 151.856049, 152.260947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 152.020004, "volume": 15917, "typical_volume": 9029.55, "trend": 153.690001, "fair_value": 182.16295, "relative_strength": -6.335037, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.37338, "energy": 24.784548, "activity_lines": [ 150.222667, 151.739455, 152.032144, 152.141162 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }