{ "ticker": { "uuid": "531f2211-6afb-43b2-8cd9-6e811fb1a496", "symbol": "ALEMBICLTD", "name": "Alembic Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.308, "architecture_energy": 42.678, "architecture_maturity": 27.513, "architecture_confidence": 76.42, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.67, "rotation_up": 13.98, "upward_expansion": 18.03, "deceleration": 42.21, "rotation_down": 63.04, "downward_expansion": 74.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.36428, 87.440099, 88.118084, 87.914667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 84.75, "trend_reference": 88.642674, "distance_from_trend": -0.043914, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.794499, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16744, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.189701, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127368, "excess_performance": -0.083659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043914, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113674, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2061546, "relative_activity": 2.001854, "balance": 0.522945, "dry_up": 1.171746, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045264, "annualized_volatility": 0.278232, "from_high_reference": -0.233448, "from_low_reference": 0.20281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.642674, "fair_value_reference": 101.794499, "structural_low": 70.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.016174, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.023189, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.091114, "worst_return": -0.141045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.068828, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.057209, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.233168, "worst_return": -0.260321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.133988, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.144448, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.258404, "worst_return": -0.358351, 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-8.07622, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.565019, "energy": 15.559155, "activity_lines": [ 88.355335, 88.454586, 88.332365, 88.534303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.637657, "volume": 730564, "typical_volume": 1032568.95, "trend": 89.572203, "fair_value": 101.701848, "relative_strength": -5.957706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.783182, "energy": 31.859509, "activity_lines": [ 87.189991, 87.938189, 88.198387, 88.247747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 88.744138, "volume": 870529, "typical_volume": 1003311.8, "trend": 89.084674, "fair_value": 101.768537, "relative_strength": -4.629507, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.817733, "energy": 22.929421, "activity_lines": [ 87.34963, 88.065012, 88.367467, 88.194323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 84.75, "volume": 2061546, "typical_volume": 1029818.5, "trend": 88.642674, "fair_value": 101.794499, "relative_strength": -9.189701, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.307579, "energy": 42.678308, "activity_lines": [ 86.36428, 87.440099, 88.118084, 87.914667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }