{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5322ec61-9fdb-4bb6-a166-74cd3e84a746",
    "symbol": "XNAS",
    "name": "Xtrackers NASDAQ 100 UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.915,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.577,
    "architecture_energy": 29.491,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.589,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.257,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.05,
        "rotation_up": 28.91,
        "upward_expansion": 58.48,
        "deceleration": 88.31,
        "rotation_down": 31.69,
        "downward_expansion": 19.82
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        66.932,
        67.504,
        67.308571,
        65.370957
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 68.959999,
    "trend_reference": 62.985167,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094861,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 49.362002,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397026,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 5.12157,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.193699,
    "excess_performance": 0.142464,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094861,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053851,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.397026,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051295,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051216,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.075132,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.193699,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.659224,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 195906,
      "relative_activity": 1.443146,
      "balance": 1.659224,
      "dry_up": 1.528347,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035026,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.192486,
      "from_high_reference": -0.023229,
      "from_low_reference": 0.298437
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 62.985167,
      "fair_value_reference": 49.362002,
      "structural_low": 53.459999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.003953,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002312,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.085024,
        "worst_return": -0.063689,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.075747,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056592,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.14767,
        "worst_return": -0.118258,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.207471,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.156333,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.225919,
        "worst_return": 0.160846,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.387103,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.304172,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.441878,
        "worst_return": 0.332329,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.018218,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.067806,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.147816,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.069036,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.046918,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013047,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016281,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.017359,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.048981,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 24021.3,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 46.299919,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 58.717077,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 109077.25,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 114283.4,
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        "relative_strength": 14.375231,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 39370,
        "typical_volume": 111743.35,
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        "fair_value": 47.465271,
        "relative_strength": 11.87514,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 109762.35,
        "trend": 60.505834,
        "fair_value": 47.683797,
        "relative_strength": 10.516822,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 48.130736,
        "relative_strength": 8.248318,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 63.45357,
        "energy": 62.259088,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 68.779999,
        "volume": 6495,
        "typical_volume": 98193.55,
        "trend": 61.618167,
        "fair_value": 48.349935,
        "relative_strength": 7.631896,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 69.019997,
        "volume": 434658,
        "typical_volume": 116854.55,
        "trend": 61.973833,
        "fair_value": 48.562387,
        "relative_strength": 9.635115,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.130279,
        "energy": 54.441187,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 66.230003,
        "volume": 210295,
        "typical_volume": 119397.85,
        "trend": 62.2285,
        "fair_value": 48.759358,
        "relative_strength": 4.07262,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.126549,
        "energy": 39.94934,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.996,
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          66.699666,
          64.566021
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 65.739998,
        "volume": 91234,
        "typical_volume": 116301.65,
        "trend": 62.4455,
        "fair_value": 48.949534,
        "relative_strength": 1.922579,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.030708,
        "energy": 28.580422,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.079999,
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          66.860095,
          64.79257
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 65.120003,
        "volume": 332453,
        "typical_volume": 130356.35,
        "trend": 62.6695,
        "fair_value": 49.140111,
        "relative_strength": -0.322987,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.755163,
        "energy": 26.750658,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.271334,
          67.350545,
          66.921762,
          64.965118
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 68.959999,
        "volume": 195906,
        "typical_volume": 135749.25,
        "trend": 62.985167,
        "fair_value": 49.362002,
        "relative_strength": 5.12157,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.577149,
        "energy": 29.491075,
        "activity_lines": [
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          65.370957
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}