{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53282d3d-488d-408f-8997-8869b983a877", "symbol": "2825", "name": "World Index Shares ETFs - CSI HK 100 Tracker", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 83.024, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.228, "architecture_energy": 26.465, "architecture_maturity": 74.083, "architecture_confidence": 56.915, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.1, "rotation_up": 47.88, "upward_expansion": 28.42, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 15.49, "downward_expansion": 51.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.532, 28.806182, 28.903048, 29.111871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.940001, "trend_reference": 29.54, "distance_from_trend": 0.013541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.311987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231491, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.510141, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.024756, "excess_performance": 0.008826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013541, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231491, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005101, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024756, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.815315, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22400, "relative_activity": 0.719794, "balance": 1.815315, "dry_up": 1.990681, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031088, "annualized_volatility": 0.160155, "from_high_reference": -0.077065, "from_low_reference": 0.141877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.54, "fair_value_reference": 24.311987, "structural_low": 26.219999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": 0.001505, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.189276, "worst_return": -0.140954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.052255, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.002602, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.363907, "worst_return": -0.215421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.092529, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005313, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084384, "worst_return": -0.169184, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 11100.0, "trend": 30.204, "fair_value": 23.685449, "relative_strength": -0.084069, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.238503, "energy": 17.243301, "activity_lines": [ 30.064001, 29.824728, 29.924857, 30.061463 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 29.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11100.0, "trend": 30.18, "fair_value": 23.748205, "relative_strength": -0.215577, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.233853, "energy": 16.405634, "activity_lines": [ 29.873334, 29.805455, 29.860476, 30.016043 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 29.1, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 12620.0, "trend": 30.133333, "fair_value": 23.807372, "relative_strength": 0.054896, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.098464, "energy": 27.289027, "activity_lines": [ 29.598667, 29.710909, 29.763238, 29.946366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 29.0, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 13120.0, "trend": 30.076667, "fair_value": 23.8625, "relative_strength": 0.545082, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.402261, "energy": 53.80677, "activity_lines": [ 29.350667, 29.597818, 29.662857, 29.873247 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 28.76, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 13480.0, "trend": 29.996667, "fair_value": 23.910449, "relative_strength": 0.637826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.14529, "energy": 69.249973, "activity_lines": [ 29.069333, 29.434909, 29.550762, 29.788301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 27.780001, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 14120.0, "trend": 29.943333, "fair_value": 23.959679, "relative_strength": 0.370618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.828597, "energy": 83.940619, "activity_lines": [ 28.576, 29.096364, 29.356667, 29.645291 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 26.4, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 14910.0, "trend": 29.816, "fair_value": 24.000064, "relative_strength": 0.598326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.711252, "energy": 96.538487, "activity_lines": [ 27.766667, 28.541818, 29.050762, 29.416688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.18, "volume": 35000, "typical_volume": 16140.0, "trend": 29.712, "fair_value": 24.047628, "relative_strength": 0.517873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.576825, "energy": 90.645455, "activity_lines": [ 27.424, 28.198909, 28.839619, 29.246624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.280001, "volume": 62000, "typical_volume": 18740.0, "trend": 29.647334, "fair_value": 24.095449, "relative_strength": 0.956822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.895332, "energy": 82.641553, "activity_lines": [ 27.576, 28.107273, 28.750286, 29.154237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.559999, "volume": 100800, "typical_volume": 23770.0, "trend": 29.603334, "fair_value": 24.1475, "relative_strength": 0.306132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.001817, "energy": 54.052577, "activity_lines": [ 27.869333, 28.092364, 28.698286, 29.084086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.0, "volume": 88400, "typical_volume": 28190.0, "trend": 29.569334, "fair_value": 24.195577, "relative_strength": 0.180457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.158324, "energy": 28.057726, "activity_lines": [ 28.322667, 28.192364, 28.69781, 29.045161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.219999, "volume": 36200, "typical_volume": 30000.0, "trend": 29.556667, "fair_value": 24.253526, "relative_strength": 0.639268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.181024, "energy": 19.362639, "activity_lines": [ 29.101333, 28.531273, 28.81581, 29.08714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.940001, "volume": 22400, "typical_volume": 31120.0, "trend": 29.54, "fair_value": 24.311987, "relative_strength": 0.510141, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.227539, "energy": 26.465335, "activity_lines": [ 29.532, 28.806182, 28.903048, 29.111871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }