{ "ticker": { "uuid": "532912a3-b587-4dbc-8e1f-de87c4c06196", "symbol": "EQVA", "name": "Eqva ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.544, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.869, "architecture_energy": 3.853, "architecture_maturity": 36.789, "architecture_confidence": 50.465, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.42, "rotation_up": 30.06, "upward_expansion": 23.24, "deceleration": 63.7, "rotation_down": 35.44, "downward_expansion": 31.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.169333, 3.163455, 3.189286, 3.188323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.15, "trend_reference": 3.163667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.016468, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.215729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.18496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105263, "excess_performance": -0.019731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.215729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24185, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.764841, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140006, "relative_activity": 0.426271, "balance": 0.764841, "dry_up": 0.601505, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078144, "annualized_volatility": 0.276819, "from_high_reference": -0.412313, "from_low_reference": 0.149635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.163667, "fair_value_reference": 4.016468, "structural_low": 2.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.035624, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.140523, "worst_return": -0.114187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.029219, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079686, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.820757, "worst_return": -0.304348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022541, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051314, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.32197, "worst_return": -0.148387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.125807, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.63536, "worst_return": -0.129098, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094771, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.387542, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.240506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", 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-24.119068, "energy": 21.245712, "activity_lines": [ 3.126667, 3.149091, 3.207, 3.187613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.29, "volume": 556050, "typical_volume": 497002.6, "trend": 3.191667, "fair_value": 4.005299, "relative_strength": -21.398389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.910402, "energy": 5.191901, "activity_lines": [ 3.18, 3.169091, 3.216143, 3.193892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.11, "volume": 255220, "typical_volume": 458419.1, "trend": 3.176333, "fair_value": 4.008418, "relative_strength": -25.677238, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.835833, "energy": 4.055663, "activity_lines": [ 3.164, 3.159091, 3.206, 3.188624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.16, "volume": 114140, "typical_volume": 375698.65, "trend": 3.173, "fair_value": 4.012399, "relative_strength": -25.369971, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.440885, "energy": 2.851798, "activity_lines": [ 3.164, 3.159818, 3.200095, 3.18757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2, "volume": 280876, "typical_volume": 356103.85, "trend": 3.165333, "fair_value": 4.014293, "relative_strength": -23.770812, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.273461, "energy": 11.682158, "activity_lines": [ 3.176667, 3.167636, 3.197429, 3.189312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.15, "volume": 140006, "typical_volume": 328443.75, "trend": 3.163667, "fair_value": 4.016468, "relative_strength": -24.18496, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.868565, "energy": 3.852628, "activity_lines": [ 3.169333, 3.163455, 3.189286, 3.188323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }