{ "ticker": { "uuid": "533e8286-e806-43ce-96d2-2bb1d22e4b83", "symbol": "DIA", "name": "DiaSorin S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.381, "architecture_energy": 59.63, "architecture_maturity": 28.321, "architecture_confidence": 74.648, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.58, "rotation_up": 66.24, "upward_expansion": 87.01, "deceleration": 44.75, "rotation_down": 14.94, "downward_expansion": 11.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.442666, 70.067272, 67.909503, 66.852483 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 75.400002, "trend_reference": 66.783785, "distance_from_trend": 0.129017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.267168, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105227, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.180942, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045418, "excess_performance": -0.125474, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105227, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175532, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205179, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045418, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.634327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1261858, "relative_activity": 0.965662, "balance": 1.634327, "dry_up": 0.877686, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068079, "annualized_volatility": 0.384012, "from_high_reference": -0.167924, "from_low_reference": 0.467659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 66.783785, "fair_value_reference": 84.267168, "structural_low": 51.374317, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057282, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027516, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.164024, "worst_return": -0.134433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.05347, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071273, "worst_return": -0.047935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.059321, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.200492, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.036414, "worst_return": -0.082227, "sufficient": false }, { 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68.329333, 67.906798, 65.547621, 65.731465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 69.32, "volume": 783257, "typical_volume": 1356567.9, "trend": 66.446777, "fair_value": 84.665211, "relative_strength": -13.13759, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.138245, "energy": 32.993997, "activity_lines": [ 68.868, 68.287636, 66.00348, 65.930139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.739998, "volume": 806820, "typical_volume": 1332804.85, "trend": 66.491748, "fair_value": 84.470786, "relative_strength": -15.29588, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.227787, "energy": 20.714273, "activity_lines": [ 68.358666, 68.066908, 66.216322, 65.949057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.739998, "volume": 1735653, "typical_volume": 1319433.25, "trend": 66.645148, "fair_value": 84.345883, "relative_strength": -8.739956, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.550952, "energy": 25.874069, "activity_lines": [ 69.403999, 68.799272, 66.909867, 66.287653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.400002, "volume": 1261858, "typical_volume": 1306728.6, "trend": 66.783785, "fair_value": 84.267168, "relative_strength": -6.180942, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.380927, "energy": 59.630028, "activity_lines": [ 71.442666, 70.067272, 67.909503, 66.852483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }