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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.328, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.163, "architecture_energy": 62.808, "architecture_maturity": 9.164, "architecture_confidence": 62.183, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.71, "rotation_up": 74.59, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 44.06, "rotation_down": 8.56, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.186669, 248.276366, 245.13653, 245.050584 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 252.800003, "trend_reference": 243.183458, "distance_from_trend": 0.039544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 228.517486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106261, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.444896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071785, "excess_performance": -0.102462, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002085, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106261, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011786, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.333333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 1.694915, "balance": 10.333333, "dry_up": 0.508475, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031402, "annualized_volatility": 0.172184, "from_high_reference": -0.055518, "from_low_reference": 0.137911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 243.183458, "fair_value_reference": 228.517486, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.134129, "energy": 21.366855, "activity_lines": [ 237.826667, 236.646154, 241.700993, 241.942317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 250.600006, "volume": 45, "typical_volume": 5.55, "trend": 242.538965, "fair_value": 226.521085, "relative_strength": -16.373382, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.392765, "energy": 19.524138, "activity_lines": [ 243.080003, 238.996365, 242.339055, 242.468683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 254.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.55, "trend": 242.649681, "fair_value": 227.036078, "relative_strength": -12.776244, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.970737, "energy": 39.871883, "activity_lines": [ 248.173337, 242.032729, 243.321469, 243.259718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 252.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.55, "trend": 242.591879, "fair_value": 227.519781, "relative_strength": -14.157282, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.632738, "energy": 50.109013, "activity_lines": [ 250.840004, 244.480002, 244.048627, 243.901674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 250.199997, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 5.55, "trend": 242.600027, "fair_value": 228.023907, "relative_strength": -14.370305, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.955683, "energy": 59.928269, "activity_lines": [ 251.453336, 246.218183, 244.472071, 244.392521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 252.800003, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 5.9, "trend": 243.183458, "fair_value": 228.517486, "relative_strength": -15.444896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.162572, "energy": 62.808084, "activity_lines": [ 252.186669, 248.276366, 245.13653, 245.050584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }