{ "ticker": { "uuid": "534a0024-bf0e-40cf-a109-18cd323e11bc", "symbol": "002441", "name": "Zhongyeda Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.257, "architecture_energy": 57.01, "architecture_maturity": 48.283, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 25.69, "upward_expansion": 10.19, "deceleration": 55.94, "rotation_down": 54.46, "downward_expansion": 83.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.784, 7.858272, 8.39212, 8.862 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.91, "trend_reference": 9.396183, "distance_from_trend": -0.158169, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.36607, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054514, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.312834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.190379, "excess_performance": -0.197778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158169, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054514, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.190379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.363745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28185729, "relative_activity": 0.914284, "balance": 0.363745, "dry_up": 0.864286, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072927, "annualized_volatility": 0.372002, "from_high_reference": -0.319862, "from_low_reference": 0.079127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.396183, "fair_value_reference": 8.36607, "structural_low": 7.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008253, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.020297, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.477108, "worst_return": -0.210583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023486, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.035248, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.274379, "worst_return": -0.11694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086901, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.13494, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.363112, "worst_return": -0.146779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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8.402535, "relative_strength": -19.358936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.064321, "energy": 80.860277, "activity_lines": [ 7.821699, 8.14117, 8.774246, 9.191907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.54, "volume": 29691702, "typical_volume": 35169020.25, "trend": 9.492516, "fair_value": 8.387147, "relative_strength": -20.272843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.841614, "energy": 77.451721, "activity_lines": [ 7.69, 7.961772, 8.606935, 9.06254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.92, "volume": 23677622, "typical_volume": 31935123.2, "trend": 9.445849, "fair_value": 8.375476, "relative_strength": -14.465075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.294119, "energy": 66.61492, "activity_lines": [ 7.735333, 7.893471, 8.493051, 8.961087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.91, "volume": 28185729, "typical_volume": 30828182.65, "trend": 9.396183, "fair_value": 8.36607, "relative_strength": -18.312834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.257304, "energy": 57.009723, "activity_lines": [ 7.784, 7.858272, 8.39212, 8.862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }