{ "ticker": { "uuid": "534b6fc8-a400-4a63-9b5c-48d96a0fc22c", "symbol": "XMSK", "name": "Reksa Dana Indeks Mandiri ETF Sri-kehati", "exchange": "JKT", "country": "ID", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^JKSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.413, "architecture_energy": 28.929, "architecture_maturity": 96.762, "architecture_confidence": 68.531, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.98, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 22.73, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 28.61, "downward_expansion": 61.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 333.733333, 330.436364, 335.585714, 345.582796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 335.0, "trend_reference": 361.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.072022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 375.004895, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106678, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.503575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1625, "excess_performance": 0.029757, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106678, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045036, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.234234, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.234234, "dry_up": 0.514166, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031917, "annualized_volatility": 0.239985, "from_high_reference": -0.198565, "from_low_reference": 0.098361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 361.0, "fair_value_reference": 375.004895, "structural_low": 305.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021538, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.012425, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.055738, "worst_return": -0.177898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.12973, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.07596, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.12973, "worst_return": -0.12973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.094595, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 426.006012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 415.123291, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"trend": 365.666667, "fair_value": 375.847103, "relative_strength": 8.374192, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.077492, "energy": 46.377499, "activity_lines": [ 329.466667, 327.8, 337.809524, 349.397849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 335.0, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 4890.0, "trend": 363.466667, "fair_value": 375.421613, "relative_strength": 7.51431, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.355998, "energy": 37.431022, "activity_lines": [ 331.8, 329.072727, 336.604762, 347.419355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 335.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4765.0, "trend": 361.0, "fair_value": 375.004895, "relative_strength": 4.503575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.412711, "energy": 28.929475, "activity_lines": [ 333.733333, 330.436364, 335.585714, 345.582796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }