{ "ticker": { "uuid": "534f4e0e-b502-4cda-82d7-99327f3ff449", "symbol": "NP3", "name": "NP3 Fastigheter AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.525, "architecture_energy": 13.397, "architecture_maturity": 28.447, "architecture_confidence": 50.541, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.57, "rotation_up": 19.27, "upward_expansion": 15.91, "deceleration": 60.78, "rotation_down": 49.63, "downward_expansion": 38.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 262.49857, 264.874248, 266.809222, 264.522347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 262.0, "trend_reference": 262.560324, "distance_from_trend": -0.002134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 235.960079, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.696254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010925, "excess_performance": -0.072419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110357, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.527302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72085, "relative_activity": 0.501398, "balance": 1.527302, "dry_up": 0.566545, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056853, "annualized_volatility": 0.29735, "from_high_reference": -0.105802, "from_low_reference": 0.176734 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 262.560324, "fair_value_reference": 235.960079, "structural_low": 222.650093, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.0106, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001696, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.227523, "worst_return": -0.048379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00536, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218392, "worst_return": -0.02001, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.129355, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317225, "worst_return": -0.160332, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 168511.35, "trend": 261.979498, "fair_value": 234.236182, "relative_strength": -6.381582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.027019, "energy": 11.438325, "activity_lines": [ 267.447174, 269.437156, 267.122844, 264.621094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 258.430206, "volume": 77167, "typical_volume": 157712.05, "trend": 262.28573, "fair_value": 234.790576, "relative_strength": -8.551662, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.379707, "energy": 8.070856, "activity_lines": [ 264.592763, 267.143245, 266.722604, 264.392108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 265.0, "volume": 69423, "typical_volume": 148471.9, "trend": 262.695565, "fair_value": 235.388309, "relative_strength": -7.220939, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.418705, "energy": 11.501975, "activity_lines": [ 263.999603, 266.163292, 266.940971, 264.567222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 262.0, "volume": 72085, "typical_volume": 143768.0, "trend": 262.560324, "fair_value": 235.960079, "relative_strength": -9.696254, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.525466, "energy": 13.396759, "activity_lines": [ 262.49857, 264.874248, 266.809222, 264.522347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }