{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5350547e-ac57-4614-ad93-2c0a7d199cc5", "symbol": "688171", "name": "Guangdong Weide Information Technology CO,.Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.837, "architecture_energy": 71.741, "architecture_maturity": 23.602, "architecture_confidence": 88.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.77, "rotation_up": 11.57, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 38.73, "rotation_down": 70.43, "downward_expansion": 89.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.111333, 27.627761, 31.390827, 33.160536 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.35, "trend_reference": 35.218235, "distance_from_trend": -0.195019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.971017, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.650795, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29275, "excess_performance": -0.249546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.721593, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444462, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9422938, "relative_activity": 0.671731, "balance": 0.444462, "dry_up": 0.904263, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159074, "annualized_volatility": 0.542272, "from_high_reference": -0.373352, "from_low_reference": 0.336634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.218235, "fair_value_reference": 20.971017, "structural_low": 21.209999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.055023, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02655, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.329536, "worst_return": -0.205009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021375, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.058678, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.291515, "worst_return": -0.224103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.221909, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.16146, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.598861, "worst_return": -0.253453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.86614, "energy": 73.478051, "activity_lines": [ 30.341062, 32.998503, 35.023496, 35.795089 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 12446510, "typical_volume": 13579415.95, "trend": 35.744268, "fair_value": 20.78998, "relative_strength": -26.542501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.459763, "energy": 84.343198, "activity_lines": [ 27.991065, 30.979388, 33.880648, 35.033237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.5, "volume": 10343595, "typical_volume": 13529948.05, "trend": 35.510208, "fair_value": 20.835361, "relative_strength": -29.584377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.496593, "energy": 86.805093, "activity_lines": [ 25.950418, 29.1353, 32.751224, 34.243284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.76, "volume": 18526342, "typical_volume": 13903550.05, "trend": 35.382384, "fair_value": 20.890188, "relative_strength": -23.071429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.240483, "energy": 80.157135, "activity_lines": [ 25.410294, 28.017925, 31.913773, 33.614238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.35, "volume": 9422938, "typical_volume": 14027834.8, "trend": 35.218235, "fair_value": 20.971017, "relative_strength": -17.650795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.837219, "energy": 71.741178, "activity_lines": [ 26.111333, 27.627761, 31.390827, 33.160536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }