{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53515d57-0b5a-4048-9f66-f1c2d94e0d2b", "symbol": "002902", "name": "Dongguan Mentech Optical & Magnetic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.069, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.284, "architecture_energy": 60.297, "architecture_maturity": 11.33, "architecture_confidence": 75.025, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.71, "rotation_up": 14.28, "upward_expansion": 28.1, "deceleration": 49.28, "rotation_down": 72.19, "downward_expansion": 57.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.886, 25.375454, 28.590095, 28.249097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.52, "trend_reference": 26.993333, "distance_from_trend": -0.091628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.15141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.019309, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.197851, "excess_performance": 0.190451, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.535472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354437, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158179838, "relative_activity": 1.150775, "balance": 0.959627, "dry_up": 0.683446, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189139, "annualized_volatility": 0.748903, "from_high_reference": -0.430165, "from_low_reference": 0.326122 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.993333, "fair_value_reference": 23.15141, "structural_low": 18.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.017494, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.042809, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017494, "worst_return": -0.017494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.147045, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.104574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.147045, "worst_return": -0.147045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025059, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027198, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025059, "worst_return": 0.025059, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.027423, 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"end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001336, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068699, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.220143, "energy": 16.166312, "activity_lines": [ 29.604667, 31.715273, 31.376953, 29.454645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.139999, "volume": 79895912, "typical_volume": 136643859.15, "trend": 27.039, "fair_value": 23.257885, "relative_strength": -11.406265, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.748811, "energy": 36.831221, "activity_lines": [ 26.672666, 29.671637, 30.664238, 29.136108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.93, "volume": 78159067, "typical_volume": 138371717.6, "trend": 27.027333, "fair_value": 23.193782, "relative_strength": -12.354543, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.716872, "energy": 50.258948, "activity_lines": [ 24.385333, 27.845091, 29.927714, 28.806495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 59537466, "typical_volume": 137590211.1, "trend": 26.932333, "fair_value": 23.152756, "relative_strength": -15.402658, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.117066, "energy": 64.33116, "activity_lines": [ 22.710666, 26.134364, 29.078714, 28.404731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.52, "volume": 158179838, "typical_volume": 137455015.7, "trend": 26.993333, "fair_value": 23.15141, "relative_strength": -5.019309, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.283927, "energy": 60.29687, "activity_lines": [ 22.886, 25.375454, 28.590095, 28.249097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }