{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53576f36-4114-48e8-ab9e-b7e321c0ce6d", "symbol": "EXPN", "name": "Experian plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.755, "architecture_energy": 42.628, "architecture_maturity": 12.259, "architecture_confidence": 54.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.19, "rotation_up": 64.23, "upward_expansion": 53.31, "deceleration": 29.0, "rotation_down": 17.1, "downward_expansion": 13.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 2795.466667, 2713.350822, 2666.947557, 2662.853943 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2897.0, "trend_reference": 2686.786989, "distance_from_trend": 0.07824, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3333.433397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.260522, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.159264, "excess_performance": 0.108028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07824, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133139, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159264, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17896837, "relative_activity": 1.48193, "balance": 0.947126, "dry_up": 1.33985, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072154, "annualized_volatility": 0.254165, "from_high_reference": -0.273355, "from_low_reference": 0.315273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2686.786989, "fair_value_reference": 3333.433397, "structural_low": 2202.585361, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005429, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000218, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.101745, "worst_return": -0.076513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050549, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.032273, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.179031, "worst_return": -0.031282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 4.8e-05, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.053998, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.274878, "worst_return": -0.107717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017735, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308658, "worst_return": -0.113989, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063331, "active": false }, { 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2686.786989, "fair_value": 3333.433397, "relative_strength": -13.260522, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.755195, "energy": 42.627547, "activity_lines": [ 2795.466667, 2713.350822, 2666.947557, 2662.853943 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }