{ "ticker": { "uuid": "535b0d38-3a30-43b4-a0bf-d881c5de50bc", "symbol": "EPHE", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI PHILIPPINES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.946, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 42.571, "architecture_energy": 52.981, "architecture_maturity": 9.034, "architecture_confidence": 56.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.75, "rotation_up": 67.66, "upward_expansion": 59.84, "deceleration": 22.6, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.614667, 25.306381, 24.896293, 24.867952 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.97, "trend_reference": 25.021182, "distance_from_trend": 0.037921, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.749929, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049296, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.079725, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010609, "excess_performance": -0.136234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049296, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04738, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05988, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010609, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.249632, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 601267, "relative_activity": 1.03513, "balance": 2.249632, "dry_up": 1.053521, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03394, "annualized_volatility": 0.216372, "from_high_reference": -0.068788, "from_low_reference": 0.150444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.021182, "fair_value_reference": 24.749929, "structural_low": 23.135578, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.024097, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.008939, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.053937, "worst_return": -0.107879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046887, "worst_return": -0.066163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058488, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.151447, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.026956, "worst_return": -0.128402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 14.183181, "activity_lines": [ 24.869976, 24.604531, 24.496877, 24.708993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.6, "volume": 305521, "typical_volume": 676957.75, "trend": 24.967239, "fair_value": 24.726272, "relative_strength": -5.785341, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.537087, "energy": 31.050885, "activity_lines": [ 25.122667, 24.808928, 24.593553, 24.752793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.22, "volume": 1146295, "typical_volume": 650098.35, "trend": 24.986966, "fair_value": 24.726164, "relative_strength": -6.279631, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.746633, "energy": 31.43655, "activity_lines": [ 25.178667, 24.928885, 24.662644, 24.7691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.56, "volume": 394715, "typical_volume": 595670.05, "trend": 25.010825, "fair_value": 24.73405, "relative_strength": -5.715968, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.720701, "energy": 41.761618, "activity_lines": [ 25.366667, 25.092045, 24.762421, 24.80607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.97, "volume": 601267, "typical_volume": 580861.35, "trend": 25.021182, "fair_value": 24.749929, "relative_strength": -7.079725, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.570941, "energy": 52.981082, "activity_lines": [ 25.614667, 25.306381, 24.896293, 24.867952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }