{ "ticker": { "uuid": "535b3784-8001-497d-98a7-98f8eb007689", "symbol": "2022", "name": "Tycoons Group Enterprise Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.419, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.961, "architecture_energy": 46.009, "architecture_maturity": 28.033, "architecture_confidence": 91.662, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.05, "rotation_up": 21.32, "upward_expansion": 7.54, "deceleration": 45.4, "rotation_down": 53.12, "downward_expansion": 80.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.648667, 7.732545, 7.811286, 8.045871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.6, "trend_reference": 8.345667, "distance_from_trend": -0.089348, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.636437, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211327, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.622486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.11525, "excess_performance": -0.556622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211327, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.346225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030114, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.240696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2930738, "relative_activity": 0.741698, "balance": 1.240696, "dry_up": 0.713794, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055061, "annualized_volatility": 0.28273, "from_high_reference": -0.236181, "from_low_reference": 0.049724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.345667, "fair_value_reference": 9.636437, "structural_low": 7.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.004181, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.033865, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.189655, "worst_return": -0.14902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.061521, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.079169, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.070797, "worst_return": -0.252747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.175759, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.176431, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.231707, "worst_return": -0.263538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -32.174304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.793309, "energy": 26.186239, "activity_lines": [ 7.835333, 7.828909, 7.962286, 8.192538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.59, "volume": 3576052, "typical_volume": 4442978.05, "trend": 8.386333, "fair_value": 9.702782, "relative_strength": -32.153597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.412919, "energy": 39.569758, "activity_lines": [ 7.748667, 7.789636, 7.900143, 8.139978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.7, "volume": 2593996, "typical_volume": 4135266.35, "trend": 8.372333, "fair_value": 9.669706, "relative_strength": -32.144964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.64643, "energy": 39.877705, "activity_lines": [ 7.698667, 7.770364, 7.855429, 8.095699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 7.6, "volume": 2930738, "typical_volume": 3951387.55, "trend": 8.345667, "fair_value": 9.636437, "relative_strength": -34.622486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.960972, "energy": 46.008627, "activity_lines": [ 7.648667, 7.732545, 7.811286, 8.045871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }