{ "ticker": { "uuid": "535bed0a-1d87-4e43-bb67-bbea5adc4e36", "symbol": "XRE", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.618, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.735, "architecture_energy": 31.329, "architecture_maturity": 76.675, "architecture_confidence": 73.242, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.38, "rotation_up": 34.23, "upward_expansion": 63.88, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 26.84, "downward_expansion": 16.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.035099, 17.10273, 16.936679, 16.689666 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.75, "trend_reference": 16.416016, "distance_from_trend": 0.020345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.76983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.822315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038734, "excess_performance": -0.081688, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020345, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134069, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.52985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1593200, "relative_activity": 1.589076, "balance": 0.52985, "dry_up": 1.345159, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023558, "annualized_volatility": 0.13432, "from_high_reference": -0.04187, "from_low_reference": 0.149825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.416016, "fair_value_reference": 14.76983, "structural_low": 15.085923, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.000434, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.011165, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.05789, "worst_return": -0.078979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.031479, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.050199, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.059183, "worst_return": -0.174562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015285, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.060041, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.038734, "worst_return": -0.157819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.162509, 16.873184, 16.618394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.07, "volume": 1122100, "typical_volume": 1003885.0, "trend": 16.388293, "fair_value": 14.753123, "relative_strength": -2.258421, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.152254, "energy": 47.789063, "activity_lines": [ 17.194482, 17.165219, 16.923784, 16.66633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.75, "volume": 1593200, "typical_volume": 1002595.0, "trend": 16.416016, "fair_value": 14.76983, "relative_strength": -6.822315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.734682, "energy": 31.328928, "activity_lines": [ 17.035099, 17.10273, 16.936679, 16.689666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }