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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.18, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.656, "architecture_energy": 30.079, "architecture_maturity": 44.636, "architecture_confidence": 44.299, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.38, "rotation_up": 40.31, "upward_expansion": 64.93, "deceleration": 62.66, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 14.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 188.394667, 188.550783, 185.595113, 182.061548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 187.55, "trend_reference": 178.676469, "distance_from_trend": 0.049663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 185.379481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.011709, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.087163, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090685, "excess_performance": -0.03494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.011709, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020117, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070872, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041198, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090685, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.907793, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2958264, "relative_activity": 0.612518, "balance": 0.907793, "dry_up": 0.762511, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042632, "annualized_volatility": 0.2145, "from_high_reference": -0.055782, "from_low_reference": 0.182374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 178.676469, "fair_value_reference": 185.379481, "structural_low": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 192.53, "volume": 4657933, "typical_volume": 5110789.35, "trend": 177.766588, "fair_value": 185.019718, "relative_strength": -1.803429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.477055, "energy": 69.340912, "activity_lines": [ 190.949296, 188.063859, 183.178929, 180.218931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 189.61, "volume": 3673958, "typical_volume": 5075370.8, "trend": 178.103503, "fair_value": 185.152335, "relative_strength": -2.335675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.854924, "energy": 64.085089, "activity_lines": [ 191.330218, 188.7305, 184.249318, 180.983022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 185.61, "volume": 3440573, "typical_volume": 4993474.6, "trend": 178.339352, "fair_value": 185.266758, "relative_strength": -5.135665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.586794, "energy": 41.276269, "activity_lines": [ 189.448, 188.479687, 184.873814, 181.467312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 187.55, "volume": 2958264, "typical_volume": 4829677.45, "trend": 178.676469, "fair_value": 185.379481, "relative_strength": -7.087163, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.65551, "energy": 30.07854, "activity_lines": [ 188.394667, 188.550783, 185.595113, 182.061548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }