{ "ticker": { "uuid": "536fc14b-047c-4062-b87f-713b444b6d3c", "symbol": "MRM", "name": "Medirom Healthcare Technologies Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.196, "architecture_energy": 42.203, "architecture_maturity": 65.783, "architecture_confidence": 84.989, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.09, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 5.56, "deceleration": 46.76, "rotation_down": 59.86, "downward_expansion": 81.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.960547, 0.996304, 1.052849, 1.101097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.96, "trend_reference": 1.19594, "distance_from_trend": -0.197284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.881703, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.666864, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.451638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278195, "excess_performance": -0.465649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197284, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.666864, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.474516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02846, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.785662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 558629, "relative_activity": 0.457154, "balance": 5.785662, "dry_up": 0.137639, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194575, "annualized_volatility": 0.636702, "from_high_reference": -0.78427, "from_low_reference": 0.156627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.19594, "fair_value_reference": 2.881703, "structural_low": 0.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.083636, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.072782, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.744615, "worst_return": -0.548785, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.090621, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.221874, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.724304, "worst_return": -0.591912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046154, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.040623, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.27036, "worst_return": -0.731884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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1238587.9, "trend": 1.301407, "fair_value": 2.987498, "relative_strength": -49.100581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.606408, "energy": 55.065362, "activity_lines": [ 0.9983, 1.055182, 1.096032, 1.158707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.986, "volume": 39860, "typical_volume": 1202351.9, "trend": 1.260607, "fair_value": 2.950229, "relative_strength": -44.803338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.103077, "energy": 45.69451, "activity_lines": [ 0.983827, 1.037871, 1.082117, 1.138358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.95, "volume": 53646, "typical_volume": 1199361.75, "trend": 1.22694, "fair_value": 2.915934, "relative_strength": -46.76608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.484779, "energy": 49.125034, "activity_lines": [ 0.968953, 1.013269, 1.066269, 1.118319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.96, "volume": 558629, "typical_volume": 1221972.45, "trend": 1.19594, "fair_value": 2.881703, "relative_strength": -47.451638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.196008, "energy": 42.202514, "activity_lines": [ 0.960547, 0.996304, 1.052849, 1.101097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }