{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5372b8b1-7ded-4e0a-9ccc-6a5a1ee56afe", "symbol": "RADL3", "name": "Raia Drogasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.574, "architecture_energy": 22.276, "architecture_maturity": 81.197, "architecture_confidence": 64.61, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.9, "rotation_up": 34.5, "upward_expansion": 23.01, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 17.51, "downward_expansion": 54.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.988666, 18.345043, 18.705801, 19.779055 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.219999, "trend_reference": 21.339524, "distance_from_trend": -0.052463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.930423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.077993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.103095, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.238279, "excess_performance": -0.18123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071154, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.077993, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004331, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71729400, "relative_activity": 1.767904, "balance": 1.002474, "dry_up": 1.169694, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068108, "annualized_volatility": 0.376504, "from_high_reference": -0.259669, "from_low_reference": 0.255108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.339524, "fair_value_reference": 21.930423, "structural_low": 16.110171, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.007801, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.0177, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.281022, "worst_return": -0.114811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.065273, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.019999, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.314262, "worst_return": -0.234026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004078, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023118, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.516216, "worst_return": -0.395805, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 42026170.0, "trend": 21.797252, "fair_value": 22.073651, "relative_strength": -14.485667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.602094, "energy": 45.960886, "activity_lines": [ 17.953217, 17.739069, 19.025535, 20.308726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.98, "volume": 42598900, "typical_volume": 40897360.0, "trend": 21.631607, "fair_value": 22.014129, "relative_strength": -17.292365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.48215, "energy": 38.522512, "activity_lines": [ 18.103424, 17.757242, 18.806067, 20.062452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.48, "volume": 25903100, "typical_volume": 39430165.0, "trend": 21.461048, "fair_value": 21.965378, "relative_strength": -16.932653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.598226, "energy": 27.113726, "activity_lines": [ 18.297628, 17.895597, 18.661155, 19.859122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 71729400, "typical_volume": 40573120.0, "trend": 21.339524, "fair_value": 21.930423, "relative_strength": -6.103095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.573742, "energy": 22.275754, "activity_lines": [ 18.988666, 18.345043, 18.705801, 19.779055 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }