{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5377a432-a19d-4230-8810-1f5806998a36", "symbol": "MBLY", "name": "Mobileye Global Inc. Class A Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.561, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.087, "architecture_energy": 12.77, "architecture_maturity": 14.341, "architecture_confidence": 48.458, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.99, "rotation_up": 26.52, "upward_expansion": 21.37, "deceleration": 51.2, "rotation_down": 43.44, "downward_expansion": 37.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.503333, 8.684, 8.914048, 8.780667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.73, "trend_reference": 8.767333, "distance_from_trend": -0.004258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.209359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.545534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.960417, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.002296, "excess_performance": -0.185157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.545534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.279604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002296, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.556392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23261380, "relative_activity": 0.687008, "balance": 0.556392, "dry_up": 1.167469, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167706, "annualized_volatility": 0.600892, "from_high_reference": -0.447818, "from_low_reference": 0.349304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.767333, "fair_value_reference": 19.209359, "structural_low": 6.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037539, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006543, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.128615, "worst_return": -0.19193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061767, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014312, "worst_return": -0.137846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.256631, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.339249, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.153703, "worst_return": -0.359559, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031044, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.174154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003724, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054656, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.291873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.730275, "energy": 10.047144, "activity_lines": [ 9.048, 9.233636, 8.987048, 8.91129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.22, "volume": 33864895, "typical_volume": 31314541.7, "trend": 9.05, "fair_value": 19.780545, "relative_strength": -24.347992, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.649399, "energy": 4.340033, "activity_lines": [ 9.139333, 9.202182, 9.042048, 8.920172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.05, "volume": 58583032, "typical_volume": 32908313.0, "trend": 8.971, "fair_value": 19.590705, "relative_strength": -31.791563, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.048455, "energy": 9.477785, "activity_lines": [ 8.848667, 8.957455, 8.982, 8.855656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.94, "volume": 42407836, "typical_volume": 33920491.3, "trend": 8.861333, "fair_value": 19.399231, "relative_strength": -32.053316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.959653, "energy": 15.139251, "activity_lines": [ 8.548667, 8.728545, 8.911286, 8.78914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.73, "volume": 23261380, "typical_volume": 33858951.75, "trend": 8.767333, "fair_value": 19.209359, "relative_strength": -27.960417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.086735, "energy": 12.770463, "activity_lines": [ 8.503333, 8.684, 8.914048, 8.780667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }