{ "ticker": { "uuid": "537a93c5-dcbc-4735-80da-3b74d048ced6", "symbol": "MN", "name": "Arnoldo Mondadori Editore S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.826, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.051, "architecture_energy": 41.118, "architecture_maturity": 35.112, "architecture_confidence": 74.247, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 56.05, "upward_expansion": 80.2, "deceleration": 60.08, "rotation_down": 21.42, "downward_expansion": 4.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.112667, 2.103364, 2.077974, 2.049338 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.15, "trend_reference": 2.022951, "distance_from_trend": 0.062804, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.967116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.092971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.864172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063069, "excess_performance": -0.107823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062804, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020057, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.092971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067091, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036022, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.890136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1772871, "relative_activity": 1.094616, "balance": 4.890136, "dry_up": 1.320845, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035471, "annualized_volatility": 0.154999, "from_high_reference": -0.018265, "from_low_reference": 0.195099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.022951, "fair_value_reference": 1.967116, "structural_low": 1.799014, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.020173, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.366667, "median_excess_return": -0.014511, "regime_survival": 0.633333, "best_return": 0.169048, "worst_return": -0.091489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0175, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.043303, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.180425, "worst_return": -0.149146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059893, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.010941, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.229166, "worst_return": -0.217403, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 1730393.65, "trend": 2.019983, "fair_value": 1.965136, "relative_strength": -7.337973, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.116036, "energy": 35.87965, "activity_lines": [ 2.096667, 2.092182, 2.067047, 2.04095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.15, "volume": 1772871, "typical_volume": 1619628.3, "trend": 2.022951, "fair_value": 1.967116, "relative_strength": -7.864172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.051174, "energy": 41.118367, "activity_lines": [ 2.112667, 2.103364, 2.077974, 2.049338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }