{ "ticker": { "uuid": "537b8f9f-9b28-4d84-a437-3e2c7709b7b5", "symbol": "SOIL", "name": "Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.833, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -9.605, "architecture_energy": 17.214, "architecture_maturity": 27.626, "architecture_confidence": 74.132, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.51, "rotation_up": 17.4, "upward_expansion": 42.59, "deceleration": 76.5, "rotation_down": 41.2, "downward_expansion": 38.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.391333, 5.499455, 5.902333, 5.724667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.1, "trend_reference": 5.207, "distance_from_trend": -0.020549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.918205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.74765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.781312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.578947, "excess_performance": 0.458526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.259961, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.74765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.746358, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.127813, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.767905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.578947, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2458400, "relative_activity": 0.743809, "balance": 0.624341, "dry_up": 0.751615, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133635, "annualized_volatility": 0.707784, "from_high_reference": -0.336801, "from_low_reference": 1.286996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.207, "fair_value_reference": 2.918205, "structural_low": 3.05, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001938, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032192, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.296053, "worst_return": -0.15942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.725, "worst_return": -0.130268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030651, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.110166, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.570342, "worst_return": -0.389728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.146216, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.265634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.1341, "worst_return": -0.158333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080851, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07554, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081395, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.184426, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.385965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.804954, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001957, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.64, "volume": 1409700, "typical_volume": 820950.0, "trend": 2.441667, "fair_value": 2.709295, "relative_strength": 5.884025, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.33531, "energy": 58.853052, "activity_lines": 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"typical_volume": 3691135.0, "trend": 4.798667, "fair_value": 2.844295, "relative_strength": 27.068265, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.944195, "energy": 24.244511, "activity_lines": [ 5.472, 5.994727, 6.086524, 5.595376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.58, "volume": 2810100, "typical_volume": 3737205.0, "trend": 4.908667, "fair_value": 2.865, "relative_strength": 31.052498, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.338583, "energy": 24.098288, "activity_lines": [ 5.430667, 5.857091, 6.065429, 5.645785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.86, "volume": 2272600, "typical_volume": 3653655.0, "trend": 5.026667, "fair_value": 2.886731, "relative_strength": 35.4264, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.299364, "energy": 17.349742, "activity_lines": [ 5.568, 5.787273, 6.060286, 5.707161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 2395700, "typical_volume": 3498400.0, "trend": 5.122, "fair_value": 2.90359, "relative_strength": 22.398693, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.211344, "energy": 14.565692, "activity_lines": [ 5.523333, 5.645455, 5.993857, 5.726086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.1, "volume": 2458400, "typical_volume": 3305150.0, "trend": 5.207, "fair_value": 2.918205, "relative_strength": 12.781312, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.605122, "energy": 17.214111, "activity_lines": [ 5.391333, 5.499455, 5.902333, 5.724667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }