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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.017, "architecture_energy": 51.804, "architecture_maturity": 38.258, "architecture_confidence": 77.901, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 61.78, "upward_expansion": 80.8, "deceleration": 58.69, "rotation_down": 17.9, "downward_expansion": 7.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.068, 96.180645, 93.736297, 91.87081 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 96.6, "trend_reference": 89.680116, "distance_from_trend": 0.077162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 78.483779, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.556713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.130538, "excess_performance": 0.004913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077162, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045921, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041961, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028734, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.676705, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 234670, "relative_activity": 1.276655, "balance": 1.676705, "dry_up": 1.17325, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039325, "annualized_volatility": 0.191468, "from_high_reference": -0.038136, "from_low_reference": 0.22763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 89.680116, "fair_value_reference": 78.483779, "structural_low": 81.631993, 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90.881098, 89.548719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.81, "volume": 241577, "typical_volume": 190608.9, "trend": 88.201654, "fair_value": 77.902065, "relative_strength": 4.775282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.900632, "energy": 81.384526, "activity_lines": [ 96.044, 94.091895, 91.697552, 90.203756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.32, "volume": 180146, "typical_volume": 183964.5, "trend": 88.762905, "fair_value": 78.10361, "relative_strength": 6.944751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.22653, "energy": 85.107857, "activity_lines": [ 97.521333, 95.301954, 92.616225, 90.921069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.11, "volume": 206257, "typical_volume": 185994.65, "trend": 89.226106, "fair_value": 78.292777, "relative_strength": 2.381529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.307833, "energy": 61.216977, "activity_lines": [ 97.246667, 95.738504, 93.175334, 91.395075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.6, "volume": 234670, "typical_volume": 183816.35, "trend": 89.680116, "fair_value": 78.483779, "relative_strength": -0.556713, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.017354, "energy": 51.804101, "activity_lines": [ 97.068, 96.180645, 93.736297, 91.87081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }