{ "ticker": { "uuid": "537ee1fb-d5d0-45f3-9e60-afd5f4b497ed", "symbol": "MANO", "name": "Manolete Partners Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.007, "architecture_energy": 20.316, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.639, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.49, "rotation_up": 28.98, "upward_expansion": 25.07, "deceleration": 51.59, "rotation_down": 23.43, "downward_expansion": 49.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.416333, 0.407545, 0.404571, 0.431581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.395, "trend_reference": 0.468, "distance_from_trend": -0.155983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.021442, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.613292, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.98543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.159574, "excess_performance": -0.21081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.613292, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.159574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.254237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161280, "relative_activity": 0.703502, "balance": 1.254237, "dry_up": 0.478424, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091529, "annualized_volatility": 0.60984, "from_high_reference": -0.665254, "from_low_reference": 0.234375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.468, "fair_value_reference": 1.021442, "structural_low": 0.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.010961, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.00536, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.282895, "worst_return": -0.314815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.057471, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.070942, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.465909, "worst_return": -0.390244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.052846, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.145046, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.183846, "worst_return": -0.464286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092683, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282895, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017699, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.255556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.435714, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.95, "volume": 10072, "typical_volume": 62876.5, "trend": 2.332333, "fair_value": 2.565789, "relative_strength": -14.938386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"relative_strength": -39.250336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.477353, "energy": 26.888661, "activity_lines": [ 0.403667, 0.393182, 0.41081, 0.443204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.43, "volume": 96824, "typical_volume": 228300.75, "trend": 0.4785, "fair_value": 1.041795, "relative_strength": -37.756063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.849635, "energy": 27.167812, "activity_lines": [ 0.416, 0.401182, 0.409143, 0.439796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.43, "volume": 43873, "typical_volume": 227308.55, "trend": 0.473833, "fair_value": 1.031731, "relative_strength": -37.687591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.847061, "energy": 26.479408, "activity_lines": [ 0.424333, 0.408091, 0.408238, 0.436667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.395, "volume": 161280, "typical_volume": 229253.05, "trend": 0.468, "fair_value": 1.021442, "relative_strength": -41.98543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.00734, "energy": 20.316178, "activity_lines": [ 0.416333, 0.407545, 0.404571, 0.431581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }