{ "ticker": { "uuid": "537f040b-424d-4fe5-b063-01764945eb2e", "symbol": "300872", "name": "Tansun Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.887, "architecture_energy": 61.46, "architecture_maturity": 11.773, "architecture_confidence": 86.095, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.93, "rotation_up": 10.33, "upward_expansion": 12.6, "deceleration": 38.75, "rotation_down": 68.29, "downward_expansion": 85.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.217333, 15.837636, 16.928238, 17.176925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.41, "trend_reference": 17.686333, "distance_from_trend": -0.072165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.399708, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000628, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.76928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041472, "excess_performance": -0.048872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059838, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000628, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246881, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004411, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041472, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83544270, "relative_activity": 1.31235, "balance": 0.62428, "dry_up": 1.02913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129377, "annualized_volatility": 0.530726, "from_high_reference": -0.456262, "from_low_reference": 0.196064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.686333, "fair_value_reference": 16.399708, "structural_low": 13.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.015268, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00347, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.454717, "worst_return": -0.149407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025539, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.015324, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.629825, "worst_return": -0.131799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.129218, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.0592, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.375185, "worst_return": -0.121862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.243386, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", 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-29.780826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.946529, "energy": 64.938714, "activity_lines": [ 15.973333, 17.139636, 17.583238, 17.739226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.95, "volume": 61106242, "typical_volume": 64005205.25, "trend": 17.989333, "fair_value": 16.389733, "relative_strength": -31.202628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.934875, "energy": 73.81855, "activity_lines": [ 15.048, 16.392546, 17.241048, 17.467505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.9, "volume": 58978733, "typical_volume": 63635828.4, "trend": 17.824667, "fair_value": 16.388067, "relative_strength": -24.266192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.849731, "energy": 69.622006, "activity_lines": [ 14.818, 15.926909, 17.00681, 17.268194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.41, "volume": 83544270, "typical_volume": 63660057.95, "trend": 17.686333, "fair_value": 16.399708, "relative_strength": -19.76928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.886796, "energy": 61.459514, "activity_lines": [ 15.217333, 15.837636, 16.928238, 17.176925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }