{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5389db93-c64e-420c-bebb-68d56acbaebb", "symbol": "SWAN", "name": "AMPLIFY ETF TRUST BLACKSWAN GROWTH & TREASURY CORE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.243, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.96, "architecture_energy": 25.437, "architecture_maturity": 46.104, "architecture_confidence": 79.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.26, "rotation_up": 37.69, "upward_expansion": 64.11, "deceleration": 87.65, "rotation_down": 30.82, "downward_expansion": 15.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.097353, 33.091407, 33.036083, 32.791861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.6988, "trend_reference": 32.550013, "distance_from_trend": 0.035293, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.622993, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.8672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.040256, "excess_performance": -0.085369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035293, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009291, "read": "Rising" 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30.400425, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.006287, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.00457, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.047417, "worst_return": -0.049915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006689, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019879, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.096459, "worst_return": -0.074523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024504, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.059464, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.12279, "worst_return": -0.044249, 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"trend": 32.489614, "fair_value": 28.444996, "relative_strength": -5.555766, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.498929, "energy": 23.723624, "activity_lines": [ 33.142081, 33.150182, 32.914834, 32.694305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.5943, "volume": 50878, "typical_volume": 269499.3, "trend": 32.49185, "fair_value": 28.49952, "relative_strength": -6.107764, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.991525, "energy": 15.628738, "activity_lines": [ 32.951018, 33.051063, 32.920416, 32.701059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.71, "volume": 46150, "typical_volume": 269348.0, "trend": 32.50952, "fair_value": 28.557332, "relative_strength": -6.601262, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.057464, "energy": 14.89378, "activity_lines": [ 32.848107, 32.977901, 32.934112, 32.715133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.6988, "volume": 31021, "typical_volume": 268656.95, "trend": 32.550013, "fair_value": 28.622993, "relative_strength": -6.8672, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.960325, "energy": 25.437063, "activity_lines": [ 33.097353, 33.091407, 33.036083, 32.791861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }