{ "ticker": { "uuid": "538bf8a9-d409-4774-80de-b3de9ab850d1", "symbol": "CME", "name": "CME Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.923, "architecture_energy": 23.958, "architecture_maturity": 71.094, "architecture_confidence": 70.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.08, "rotation_up": 30.9, "upward_expansion": 19.72, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 23.28, "downward_expansion": 56.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 259.050667, 251.771985, 260.016889, 268.977279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 263.66, "trend_reference": 277.880186, "distance_from_trend": -0.051174, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 231.209544, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.200312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101982, "excess_performance": -0.289436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01792, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8755519, "relative_activity": 0.616735, "balance": 1.013877, "dry_up": 0.862251, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075379, "annualized_volatility": 0.321762, "from_high_reference": -0.175344, "from_low_reference": 0.207732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 277.880186, "fair_value_reference": 231.209544, "structural_low": 218.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.022012, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.02257, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.131826, "worst_return": -0.073203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083261, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.0564, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.196229, "worst_return": -0.088271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.157778, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.055144, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.352987, "worst_return": -0.107994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 240.27, "volume": 15305699, "typical_volume": 14259024.55, "trend": 278.387822, "fair_value": 229.100674, "relative_strength": -24.453515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.680351, "energy": 81.995724, "activity_lines": [ 238.202667, 250.08853, 266.599777, 274.100164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 245.05, "volume": 12347874, "typical_volume": 14141372.8, "trend": 277.8437, "fair_value": 229.605027, "relative_strength": -19.179812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.664709, "energy": 75.949759, "activity_lines": [ 238.967333, 247.207196, 263.316561, 271.949337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 255.31, "volume": 15169290, "typical_volume": 14319516.35, "trend": 277.394214, "fair_value": 230.117898, "relative_strength": -14.037211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.906953, "energy": 46.371272, "activity_lines": [ 244.784, 246.823655, 261.321385, 270.49555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 267.79, "volume": 12691289, "typical_volume": 14300857.6, "trend": 277.588989, "fair_value": 230.67893, "relative_strength": -9.927505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.164538, "energy": 26.731141, "activity_lines": [ 254.165333, 249.473564, 260.765717, 269.875923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 263.66, "volume": 8755519, "typical_volume": 14196558.35, "trend": 277.880186, "fair_value": 231.209544, "relative_strength": -15.200312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.923477, "energy": 23.95807, "activity_lines": [ 259.050667, 251.771985, 260.016889, 268.977279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }