{ "ticker": { "uuid": "538c52c0-94d1-4d3f-a96a-f6d725d66fd9", "symbol": "FAU", "name": "Forvia SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.772, "architecture_energy": 48.308, "architecture_maturity": 64.425, "architecture_confidence": 89.218, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.13, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 7.04, "deceleration": 60.22, "rotation_down": 54.2, "downward_expansion": 80.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.997467, 9.070818, 9.548295, 9.915598 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.118, "trend_reference": 10.7424, "distance_from_trend": -0.151214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.710237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.70967, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351494, "excess_performance": -0.416133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09105, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221365, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042125, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351494, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.714446, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3351, "relative_activity": 0.918648, "balance": 0.714446, "dry_up": 1.572956, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078045, "annualized_volatility": 0.473773, "from_high_reference": -0.391119, "from_low_reference": 0.074222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.7424, "fair_value_reference": 11.710237, "structural_low": 8.488, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.006024, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.025286, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.282181, "worst_return": -0.207334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059707, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.134219, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.590837, "worst_return": -0.343126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.152991, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.290291, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.794155, "worst_return": -0.442341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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9.921281, 10.48632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.796, "volume": 6607, "typical_volume": 4762.0, "trend": 11.2316, "fair_value": 11.941997, "relative_strength": -23.897904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.199289, "energy": 84.450604, "activity_lines": [ 8.9568, 9.430764, 9.797986, 10.319123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.704, "volume": 6155, "typical_volume": 4501.05, "trend": 11.079233, "fair_value": 11.854796, "relative_strength": -25.279205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.470137, "energy": 77.768823, "activity_lines": [ 8.850133, 9.230509, 9.681305, 10.156052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.152, "volume": 6838, "typical_volume": 4154.4, "trend": 10.9178, "fair_value": 11.779089, "relative_strength": -22.698485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.568745, "energy": 53.283142, "activity_lines": [ 8.946, 9.142364, 9.6152, 10.031714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.118, "volume": 3351, "typical_volume": 3647.75, "trend": 10.7424, "fair_value": 11.710237, "relative_strength": -24.70967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.772063, "energy": 48.307516, "activity_lines": [ 8.997467, 9.070818, 9.548295, 9.915598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }