{ "ticker": { "uuid": "538d8042-c858-4134-9ef9-b1712f995892", "symbol": "600085", "name": "Beijing Tongrentang Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.874, "architecture_energy": 26.014, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 62.422, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.81, "rotation_up": 39.02, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 18.06, "downward_expansion": 53.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.428, 24.705925, 24.989024, 25.916913 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.040001, "trend_reference": 27.337799, "distance_from_trend": -0.084052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.564493, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.333413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.006713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174142, "excess_performance": -0.130939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.333413, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089728, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.056805, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58344094, "relative_activity": 1.606701, "balance": 1.056805, "dry_up": 2.125084, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065147, "annualized_volatility": 0.274703, "from_high_reference": -0.333511, "from_low_reference": 0.14411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.337799, "fair_value_reference": 37.564493, "structural_low": 21.886011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.021409, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.020095, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.201267, "worst_return": -0.131441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024661, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.069116, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.196871, "worst_return": -0.225404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065846, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.157193, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.12864, "worst_return": -0.187123, "sufficient": 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26.174629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.32, "volume": 49579114, "typical_volume": 34720811.9, "trend": 27.578466, "fair_value": 37.722007, "relative_strength": -11.19768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.81327, "energy": 26.512094, "activity_lines": [ 25.378667, 24.577758, 25.070852, 26.080685 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.040001, "volume": 58344094, "typical_volume": 36312979.3, "trend": 27.337799, "fair_value": 37.564493, "relative_strength": -17.006713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.874114, "energy": 26.01441, "activity_lines": [ 25.428, 24.705925, 24.989024, 25.916913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }