{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "538eead7-8ddd-4e30-90a9-6ccf2b98bf83",
    "symbol": "OCIO",
    "name": "ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS CLEARSHARES OCIO ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 65.904,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 65.558,
    "architecture_energy": 32.801,
    "architecture_maturity": 46.057,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.948,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.28,
        "rotation_up": 36.03,
        "upward_expansion": 63.55,
        "deceleration": 93.61,
        "rotation_down": 27.75,
        "downward_expansion": 12.88
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        37.248907,
        37.244573,
        37.060298,
        36.609284
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 37.9771,
    "trend_reference": 36.100791,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.051974,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.191589,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217543,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.831688,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.067474,
    "excess_performance": -0.058151,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051974,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026305,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.217543,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000673,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038317,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00605,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067474,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 12.045718,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3229,
      "relative_activity": 0.093905,
      "balance": 12.045718,
      "dry_up": 0.09091,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023687,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.114714,
      "from_high_reference": -0.009778,
      "from_low_reference": 0.164399
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 36.100791,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.191589,
      "structural_low": 33.3654,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.027429,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006883,
        "regime_survival": 0.272727,
        "best_return": 0.069591,
        "worst_return": -0.016017,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.025899,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034873,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.120672,
        "worst_return": -0.042274,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.053459,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.04859,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.098765,
        "worst_return": 0.001349,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.078111,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019023,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.087295,
        "worst_return": -0.128122,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.034458,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.003538,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012003,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.059398,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.027962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024815,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007159,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.090626,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.032572,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.062359,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051392,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008438,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033092,
        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -3.088158,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -2.519798,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 34746.2,
        "trend": 35.803765,
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        "relative_strength": -2.904546,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 63.6263,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 36.8333,
        "volume": 1808,
        "typical_volume": 34575.05,
        "trend": 35.880172,
        "fair_value": 30.980912,
        "relative_strength": -3.250915,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.441028,
        "energy": 32.860832,
        "activity_lines": [
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          36.800582,
          36.368235
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 36.7606,
        "volume": 3736,
        "typical_volume": 34585.5,
        "trend": 35.943106,
        "fair_value": 31.046053,
        "relative_strength": -2.795986,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.157693,
        "energy": 25.88816,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.035404,
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          36.425037
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 36.83,
        "volume": 3731,
        "typical_volume": 34417.55,
        "trend": 36.008164,
        "fair_value": 31.114749,
        "relative_strength": -3.563204,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 35.258093,
        "energy": 19.880796,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.94034,
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          36.909943,
          36.482256
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 37.9771,
        "volume": 3229,
        "typical_volume": 34385.8,
        "trend": 36.100791,
        "fair_value": 31.191589,
        "relative_strength": -3.831688,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.557757,
        "energy": 32.800944,
        "activity_lines": [
          37.248907,
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          37.060298,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}