{ "ticker": { "uuid": "539090bc-e390-4362-aa7c-828c137025bc", "symbol": "FLTB", "name": "FIDELITY MERRIMACK STREET TRUST LTD TERM BF ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.523, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.544, "architecture_energy": 16.18, "architecture_maturity": 28.128, "architecture_confidence": 91.483, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.24, "rotation_up": 20.9, "upward_expansion": 3.5, "deceleration": 45.36, "rotation_down": 42.29, "downward_expansion": 74.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.913729, 49.921373, 49.937964, 49.948962 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 50.0463, "trend_reference": 49.966634, "distance_from_trend": 0.001594, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.057813, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.063507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.416295, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00015, "excess_performance": -0.125775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001594, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.063507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00015, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.014599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200718, "relative_activity": 0.861275, "balance": 1.014599, "dry_up": 1.210575, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005909, "annualized_volatility": 0.023766, "from_high_reference": -0.007479, "from_low_reference": 0.029202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.966634, "fair_value_reference": 47.057813, "structural_low": 49.4217, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.000937, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002924, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.015707, "worst_return": -0.01944, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000957, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022203, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.029976, "worst_return": -0.01673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001557, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034906, "worst_return": -0.013288, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-17", "close": 49.928923, "volume": 192071, "typical_volume": 225139.6, "trend": 49.95906, "fair_value": 46.922117, "relative_strength": -7.868074, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.103163, "energy": 11.167491, "activity_lines": [ 49.926095, 49.941897, 49.948836, 49.961719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.794451, "volume": 206462, "typical_volume": 223149.4, "trend": 49.959424, "fair_value": 46.966865, "relative_strength": -7.341904, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.430846, "energy": 34.610425, "activity_lines": [ 49.876483, 49.917804, 49.93476, 49.951099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.84, "volume": 529235, "typical_volume": 238027.2, "trend": 49.96, "fair_value": 47.011364, "relative_strength": -7.959087, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.897228, "energy": 37.838044, "activity_lines": [ 49.856331, 49.901016, 49.926513, 49.943395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.0463, "volume": 200718, "typical_volume": 233047.6, "trend": 49.966634, "fair_value": 47.057813, "relative_strength": -10.416295, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.544062, "energy": 16.179581, "activity_lines": [ 49.913729, 49.921373, 49.937964, 49.948962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }