{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53912d0f-3d3e-471e-9564-d833e911e8a8", "symbol": "300021", "name": "Dayu Irrigation Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.88, "architecture_energy": 43.037, "architecture_maturity": 56.376, "architecture_confidence": 87.025, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.98, "rotation_up": 21.67, "upward_expansion": 5.59, "deceleration": 55.36, "rotation_down": 48.4, "downward_expansion": 74.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.828667, 3.850274, 3.964421, 4.111251 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 4.321511, "distance_from_trend": -0.097538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.342528, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.056092, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.215292, "excess_performance": -0.222692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115993, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068981, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62931011, "relative_activity": 1.114349, "balance": 0.745564, "dry_up": 1.061757, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070684, "annualized_volatility": 0.320407, "from_high_reference": -0.340102, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.321511, "fair_value_reference": 4.342528, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.005556, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.00756, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.294499, "worst_return": -0.136704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.048148, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035073, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.225207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.112963, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051467, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.131937, "worst_return": -0.189822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.115, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.111419, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069212, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 5.101729, "volume": 54213177, "typical_volume": 54367199.8, "trend": 4.771729, "fair_value": 4.910085, "relative_strength": 10.060968, "stage": 2, "regime": 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-21.577487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.019839, "energy": 43.940306, "activity_lines": [ 3.906336, 3.908746, 4.067687, 4.222361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.66, "volume": 53295838, "typical_volume": 65020495.7, "trend": 4.373844, "fair_value": 4.357001, "relative_strength": -22.515897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.487795, "energy": 48.059212, "activity_lines": [ 3.830791, 3.85374, 4.014329, 4.174392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.84, "volume": 45256489, "typical_volume": 59419361.2, "trend": 4.344844, "fair_value": 4.349729, "relative_strength": -16.17293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.878295, "energy": 42.514109, "activity_lines": [ 3.815379, 3.843825, 3.984161, 4.139951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.9, "volume": 62931011, "typical_volume": 56473363.8, "trend": 4.321511, "fair_value": 4.342528, "relative_strength": -18.056092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.880003, "energy": 43.037304, "activity_lines": [ 3.828667, 3.850274, 3.964421, 4.111251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }