{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53972da1-2c86-4d11-8ec0-211aef737455", "symbol": "CIA", "name": "Citizens Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.657, "architecture_energy": 65.112, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.58, "rotation_up": 10.86, "upward_expansion": 11.93, "deceleration": 39.73, "rotation_down": 77.39, "downward_expansion": 82.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.589333, 5.089273, 5.246952, 5.260731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.8, "trend_reference": 5.323333, "distance_from_trend": -0.286162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.106026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.121525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.364548, "excess_performance": -0.490173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.286162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006408, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.428738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.364548, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 926050, "relative_activity": 1.731314, "balance": 0.498623, "dry_up": 1.148788, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18368, "annualized_volatility": 0.497918, "from_high_reference": -0.41896, "from_low_reference": 0.022577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.323333, "fair_value_reference": 4.106026, "structural_low": 3.7161, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.043207, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.028267, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.207343, "worst_return": -0.216117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.112403, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.134006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.792969, "worst_return": -0.406143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040956, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.077456, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.925781, "worst_return": -0.485507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.066685, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089195, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.605948, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.214844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.736111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.324675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.196617, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.99, "volume": 341087, "typical_volume": 425865.25, "trend": 2.606, "fair_value": 4.445256, "relative_strength": 0.068726, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.897333, 5.683091, 5.490571, 5.438065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.37, "volume": 499216, "typical_volume": 577697.6, "trend": 5.374667, "fair_value": 4.073974, "relative_strength": -8.084829, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.231781, "energy": 35.766362, "activity_lines": [ 5.728, 5.656545, 5.494238, 5.436495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.84, "volume": 466807, "typical_volume": 572237.0, "trend": 5.364, "fair_value": 4.08859, "relative_strength": -16.679816, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.897378, "energy": 9.818921, "activity_lines": [ 5.394667, 5.531273, 5.447667, 5.402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.73, "volume": 565795, "typical_volume": 531925.45, "trend": 5.355667, "fair_value": 4.100769, "relative_strength": -19.451083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.119526, "energy": 22.526331, "activity_lines": [ 5.092, 5.392909, 5.391952, 5.361097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.8, "volume": 926050, "typical_volume": 534882.85, "trend": 5.323333, "fair_value": 4.106026, "relative_strength": -37.121525, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.656628, "energy": 65.112216, "activity_lines": [ 4.589333, 5.089273, 5.246952, 5.260731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }