{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53977e8b-cba9-46a7-bd45-8864ce571b88", "symbol": "UBOT", "name": "DIREXION DAILY ROBOTICS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & AUTOMATION INDEX BULL 2X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.747, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.37, "architecture_energy": 56.167, "architecture_maturity": 7.725, "architecture_confidence": 88.53, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.76, "rotation_up": 10.94, "upward_expansion": 11.07, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 63.15, "downward_expansion": 82.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.821173, 23.391722, 24.979612, 25.17341 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.1181, "trend_reference": 25.671691, "distance_from_trend": -0.021564, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.353546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123674, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.650901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.065035, "excess_performance": -0.190659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021564, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123674, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320633, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284581, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.065035, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.302957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93003, "relative_activity": 0.941057, "balance": 0.302957, "dry_up": 0.837719, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117168, "annualized_volatility": 0.615674, "from_high_reference": -0.214857, "from_low_reference": 0.313708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.671691, "fair_value_reference": 22.353546, "structural_low": 19.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.064285, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.046844, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.353045, "worst_return": -0.276032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.057646, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.029305, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.606521, "worst_return": -0.319799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.153918, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.046944, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.967981, "worst_return": -0.420147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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25.080819, "volume": 142609, "typical_volume": 115594.3, "trend": 26.134263, "fair_value": 22.214246, "relative_strength": -9.218873, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.789917, "energy": 13.432509, "activity_lines": [ 27.265759, 27.895047, 26.58836, 26.467361 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 26.68639, "volume": 61626, "typical_volume": 113548.95, "trend": 26.296818, "fair_value": 22.254672, "relative_strength": -4.479262, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.521519, "energy": 19.735921, "activity_lines": [ 26.786979, 27.740906, 26.628368, 26.502982 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 23.42, "volume": 72997, "typical_volume": 109469.4, "trend": 26.277197, "fair_value": 22.265086, "relative_strength": -13.9839, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.961131, "energy": 25.110876, "activity_lines": [ 25.427496, 26.934214, 26.357936, 26.317381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 25.39, "volume": 74330, "typical_volume": 106482.35, "trend": 26.251273, "fair_value": 22.294305, "relative_strength": -8.66751, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.353698, "energy": 19.644112, "activity_lines": [ 25.147207, 26.534794, 26.291529, 26.260142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.5, "volume": 71729, "typical_volume": 105506.2, "trend": 26.213261, "fair_value": 22.306172, "relative_strength": -12.972133, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.473536, "energy": 31.974471, "activity_lines": [ 24.851573, 25.982131, 26.153368, 26.147157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.25, "volume": 86112, "typical_volume": 104843.85, "trend": 26.091789, "fair_value": 22.301619, "relative_strength": -23.04262, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.407462, "energy": 60.940856, "activity_lines": [ 23.596426, 24.893904, 25.727584, 25.826946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.4157, "volume": 85545, "typical_volume": 101399.45, "trend": 25.913369, "fair_value": 22.29182, "relative_strength": -25.237862, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.63662, "energy": 69.205588, "activity_lines": [ 22.318567, 23.844758, 25.259529, 25.460747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.12, "volume": 66501, "typical_volume": 98482.75, "trend": 25.778462, "fair_value": 22.30689, "relative_strength": -19.611541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.905723, "energy": 65.750754, "activity_lines": [ 22.026853, 23.27625, 24.974671, 25.216014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.1181, "volume": 93003, "typical_volume": 98828.2, "trend": 25.671691, "fair_value": 22.353546, "relative_strength": -11.650901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.370058, "energy": 56.166664, "activity_lines": [ 22.821173, 23.391722, 24.979612, 25.17341 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }