{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5399e058-dde9-42ff-9ba1-63ab153ba71e", "symbol": "APL", "name": "Associate Global Partners Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.697, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.329, "architecture_energy": 24.541, "architecture_maturity": 44.833, "architecture_confidence": 76.504, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.03, "rotation_up": 47.58, "upward_expansion": 55.64, "deceleration": 71.16, "rotation_down": 10.68, "downward_expansion": 21.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.268667, 0.263182, 0.274405, 0.271237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.275, "trend_reference": 0.259333, "distance_from_trend": 0.060411, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.166391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.652733, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 22.95571, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145833, "excess_performance": 0.082128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060411, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149188, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.652733, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.229557, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.557491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.162418, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75, "relative_activity": 0.003253, "balance": 0.162418, "dry_up": 0.237855, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051748, "annualized_volatility": 0.622262, "from_high_reference": -0.126984, "from_low_reference": 1.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.259333, "fair_value_reference": 0.166391, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042932, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.130526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038315, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.332741, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.344553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.178571, "worst_return": -0.486911, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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0.281429, 0.265763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.25, "volume": 10199, "typical_volume": 28344.15, "trend": 0.244, "fair_value": 0.165686, "relative_strength": 25.295058, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.416487, "energy": 47.053617, "activity_lines": [ 0.254667, 0.273, 0.27969, 0.266323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28079.3, "trend": 0.246667, "fair_value": 0.165654, "relative_strength": 24.193166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.578983, "energy": 48.285395, "activity_lines": [ 0.249333, 0.266727, 0.277857, 0.26671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.265, "volume": 21829, "typical_volume": 29170.75, "trend": 0.249667, "fair_value": 0.16575, "relative_strength": 29.865062, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.962519, "energy": 41.390756, "activity_lines": [ 0.252333, 0.264091, 0.277119, 0.267892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.265, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29136.35, "trend": 0.252667, "fair_value": 0.165718, "relative_strength": 28.362251, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.767441, "energy": 26.014131, "activity_lines": [ 0.257667, 0.262273, 0.275976, 0.268882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 26800.25, "trend": 0.255833, "fair_value": 0.16591, "relative_strength": 26.19135, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.658336, "energy": 14.474915, "activity_lines": [ 0.263667, 0.262, 0.275, 0.27 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.275, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 23054.0, "trend": 0.259333, "fair_value": 0.166391, "relative_strength": 22.95571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.329173, "energy": 24.540765, "activity_lines": [ 0.268667, 0.263182, 0.274405, 0.271237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }