{ "ticker": { "uuid": "539b5b7b-af3c-4cf9-9163-6ff4f53a6d6c", "symbol": "ETLN", "name": "L&G Europe ex UK Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.853, "architecture_energy": 65.577, "architecture_maturity": 49.637, "architecture_confidence": 79.458, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 56.02, "upward_expansion": 82.07, "deceleration": 63.47, "rotation_down": 26.42, "downward_expansion": 11.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.395667, 22.290636, 21.881586, 21.503815 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.805, "trend_reference": 21.1199, "distance_from_trend": 0.079787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.87559, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.914296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098771, "excess_performance": 0.034132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068254, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039143, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098771, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.946217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 532, "relative_activity": 0.023026, "balance": 0.946217, "dry_up": 0.397476, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019277, "annualized_volatility": 0.150121, "from_high_reference": -0.002842, "from_low_reference": 0.25096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.1199, "fair_value_reference": 17.87559, "structural_low": 18.733999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.011139, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.003012, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.074784, "worst_return": -0.108091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026511, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.01186, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.093517, "worst_return": -0.059895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.066065, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.011926, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.139893, "worst_return": -0.148004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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22.199, 22.021545, 21.5145, 21.224215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.16, "volume": 9577, "typical_volume": 26482.5, "trend": 20.9734, "fair_value": 17.775577, "relative_strength": 6.430393, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.093723, "energy": 66.113753, "activity_lines": [ 22.186667, 22.086363, 21.622371, 21.305716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.285, "volume": 6050, "typical_volume": 24844.05, "trend": 21.046067, "fair_value": 17.82393, "relative_strength": 4.543567, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.808248, "energy": 54.731475, "activity_lines": [ 22.211667, 22.148636, 21.732838, 21.390335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.805, "volume": 532, "typical_volume": 23103.9, "trend": 21.1199, "fair_value": 17.87559, "relative_strength": 3.914296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.852865, "energy": 65.577082, "activity_lines": [ 22.395667, 22.290636, 21.881586, 21.503815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }