{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53a158dd-e44a-447a-bc32-4da58a2e6326", "symbol": "F99", "name": "Fraser and Neave, Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 92.264, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.711, "architecture_energy": 10.353, "architecture_maturity": 36.798, "architecture_confidence": 72.07, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.59, "rotation_up": 33.7, "upward_expansion": 33.56, "deceleration": 35.13, "rotation_down": 23.5, "downward_expansion": 41.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.434364, 1.433689, 1.434545 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.44, "trend_reference": 1.441266, "distance_from_trend": -0.000878, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.207408, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.192637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.331181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029895, "excess_performance": -0.18473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000878, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.192637, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.826627, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43800, "relative_activity": 0.244912, "balance": 1.826627, "dry_up": 0.964969, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015475, "annualized_volatility": 0.084834, "from_high_reference": -0.067206, "from_low_reference": 0.097761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.441266, "fair_value_reference": 1.207408, "structural_low": 1.365625, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006945, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.005299, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.174603, "worst_return": -0.05983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006959, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017292, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.148326, "worst_return": -0.110403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023587, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206478, "worst_return": -0.114654, "sufficient": true }, { 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1.441636, "fair_value": 1.198194, "relative_strength": -13.631658, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.497117, "energy": 11.553341, "activity_lines": [ 1.432667, 1.430998, 1.432107, 1.43544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.42, "volume": 70200, "typical_volume": 196520.0, "trend": 1.441064, "fair_value": 1.201046, "relative_strength": -15.599879, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.265444, "energy": 20.051941, "activity_lines": [ 1.428667, 1.429091, 1.431181, 1.434044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.45, "volume": 227000, "typical_volume": 193395.0, "trend": 1.441171, "fair_value": 1.204259, "relative_strength": -14.03575, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.028524, "energy": 8.887828, "activity_lines": [ 1.436, 1.432909, 1.433041, 1.434621 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.44, "volume": 43800, "typical_volume": 178840.0, "trend": 1.441266, "fair_value": 1.207408, "relative_strength": -15.331181, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.711034, "energy": 10.353291, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.434364, 1.433689, 1.434545 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }