{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53ad1347-d9b9-4cc5-b533-fcf495463237", "symbol": "IR", "name": "Ingersoll Rand Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 77.052, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.141, "architecture_energy": 44.754, "architecture_maturity": 8.213, "architecture_confidence": 72.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.17, "rotation_up": 68.71, "upward_expansion": 51.22, "deceleration": 19.52, "rotation_down": 14.99, "downward_expansion": 21.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.326667, 82.300182, 79.59392, 80.441404 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 86.97, "trend_reference": 82.619042, "distance_from_trend": 0.052663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.647625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039719, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.951369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116618, "excess_performance": -0.242243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001243, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039719, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136139, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.692911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25125148, "relative_activity": 1.307321, "balance": 2.692911, "dry_up": 1.209675, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065302, "annualized_volatility": 0.290417, "from_high_reference": -0.138142, "from_low_reference": 0.277655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 82.619042, "fair_value_reference": 83.647625, "structural_low": 68.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.06418, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.010944, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.117514, "worst_return": -0.089348, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.026558, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056121, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036653, "worst_return": -0.097145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031036, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077348, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111554, "worst_return": -0.066688, "sufficient": false }, { 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78.180182, 77.832155, 79.964473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 84.4, "volume": 23254415, "typical_volume": 18670271.55, "trend": 82.446976, "fair_value": 83.418501, "relative_strength": -3.756601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.300572, "energy": 22.003833, "activity_lines": [ 82.004, 79.705455, 78.365856, 80.09727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.38, "volume": 22858808, "typical_volume": 18854396.5, "trend": 82.568961, "fair_value": 83.525327, "relative_strength": -5.795041, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.056883, "energy": 27.171458, "activity_lines": [ 82.634, 80.789818, 78.811966, 80.157466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.97, "volume": 25125148, "typical_volume": 19218803.7, "trend": 82.619042, "fair_value": 83.647625, "relative_strength": -4.951369, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.140629, "energy": 44.754275, "activity_lines": [ 84.326667, 82.300182, 79.59392, 80.441404 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }