{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53aea4b5-4e10-465b-ac15-d496d8635bbc", "symbol": "WKEY", "name": "Wisekey International Holding AG", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.488, "architecture_energy": 53.177, "architecture_maturity": 15.356, "architecture_confidence": 88.544, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.44, "rotation_up": 11.03, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 40.11, "rotation_down": 67.22, "downward_expansion": 85.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.385, 6.660182, 7.241476, 7.249462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.47, "trend_reference": 7.326833, "distance_from_trend": -0.116945, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.874856, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.450585, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.078348, "excess_performance": -0.265801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116945, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088154, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.423898, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.078348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.464894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 197894, "relative_activity": 0.393328, "balance": 0.464894, "dry_up": 0.480751, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186314, "annualized_volatility": 0.626053, "from_high_reference": -0.673232, "from_low_reference": 0.362105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.326833, "fair_value_reference": 4.874856, "structural_low": 5.3201, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.066212, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.074567, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.423341, "worst_return": -0.451754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.226659, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.220256, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.696, "worst_return": -0.642317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.397775, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.45254, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.89016, "worst_return": -0.71709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152733, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.262264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.364553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177437, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032721, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.46, "volume": 57177, "typical_volume": 2491481.05, "trend": 5.450675, "fair_value": 20.02147, "relative_strength": -41.290158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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274967, "typical_volume": 544398.85, "trend": 7.595667, "fair_value": 4.81399, "relative_strength": -22.729761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.291765, "energy": 22.168384, "activity_lines": [ 7.087333, 7.631636, 7.624524, 7.545054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.6, "volume": 313591, "typical_volume": 548851.75, "trend": 7.562333, "fair_value": 4.830849, "relative_strength": -22.280195, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.192852, "energy": 39.797404, "activity_lines": [ 6.883, 7.362545, 7.545333, 7.480817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.265, "volume": 163354, "typical_volume": 527490.85, "trend": 7.491167, "fair_value": 4.844663, "relative_strength": -24.853526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.32445, "energy": 48.188755, "activity_lines": [ 6.629667, 7.061091, 7.436619, 7.397118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.14, "volume": 292678, "typical_volume": 522471.65, "trend": 7.4075, "fair_value": 4.858125, "relative_strength": -26.683006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.574104, "energy": 50.387766, "activity_lines": [ 6.417667, 6.790273, 7.321452, 7.309946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.47, "volume": 197894, "typical_volume": 503127.8, "trend": 7.326833, "fair_value": 4.874856, "relative_strength": -26.450585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.48794, "energy": 53.177293, "activity_lines": [ 6.385, 6.660182, 7.241476, 7.249462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }