{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53bc1420-9158-4ad7-bedd-93195388c394", "symbol": "ETHE", "name": "CoinShares Ethereum Staking ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.439, "architecture_energy": 25.813, "architecture_maturity": 81.801, "architecture_confidence": 65.025, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.15, "rotation_up": 34.87, "upward_expansion": 19.3, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 18.91, "downward_expansion": 53.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.316, 44.532455, 45.810596, 47.177753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 47.029999, "trend_reference": 50.032333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060008, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 68.574134, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314173, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.042851, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001486, "excess_performance": -0.084369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060008, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166327, "read": "Falling" 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37.474998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.018005, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.027686, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.556818, "worst_return": -0.283156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.341529, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.34205, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.891385, "worst_return": -0.301513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.236331, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.187379, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.690803, "worst_return": -0.40811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-38.17508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.663422, "energy": 27.5364, "activity_lines": [ 44.598, 43.318364, 46.063286, 47.787828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.275002, "volume": 141, "typical_volume": 17540.75, "trend": 50.962, "fair_value": 68.578013, "relative_strength": -38.314971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.544638, "energy": 27.218946, "activity_lines": [ 45.585334, 43.819092, 45.888596, 47.43143 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.029999, "volume": 246, "typical_volume": 15287.25, "trend": 50.032333, "fair_value": 68.574134, "relative_strength": -37.042851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.438924, "energy": 25.81263, "activity_lines": [ 46.316, 44.532455, 45.810596, 47.177753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }