{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53bcc166-d140-49dd-a99b-50af7d3dbc91", "symbol": "STE-A", "name": "Stora Enso Oyj", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.004, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.722, "architecture_energy": 14.041, "architecture_maturity": 30.031, "architecture_confidence": 67.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.88, "rotation_up": 35.33, "upward_expansion": 31.54, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 21.57, "downward_expansion": 42.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.3, 106.127273, 105.957143, 107.218885 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 106.0, "trend_reference": 109.20327, "distance_from_trend": -0.029333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 120.385702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.176318, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.08509, "excess_performance": -0.146585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00981, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.893055, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17026, "relative_activity": 1.705576, "balance": 0.893055, "dry_up": 1.369916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050435, "annualized_volatility": 0.27355, "from_high_reference": -0.161031, "from_low_reference": 0.124254 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 109.20327, "fair_value_reference": 120.385702, "structural_low": 100.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00652, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.014374, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.17619, "worst_return": -0.174436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034858, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.044239, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.123892, "worst_return": -0.151511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012688, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.057748, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.080756, "worst_return": -0.106895, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.180952, 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"trend": 110.575562, "fair_value": 121.488352, "relative_strength": -17.09643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.193345, "energy": 55.97235, "activity_lines": [ 103.866667, 104.590909, 106.62416, 108.576226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 104.5, "volume": 3828, "typical_volume": 11526.25, "trend": 110.263533, "fair_value": 121.290907, "relative_strength": -15.819469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.624153, "energy": 54.102832, "activity_lines": [ 103.666667, 104.563636, 106.13777, 108.184255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 104.0, "volume": 4244, "typical_volume": 10959.95, "trend": 110.051363, "fair_value": 121.039237, "relative_strength": -13.938122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.608207, "energy": 49.449708, "activity_lines": [ 103.533333, 104.445455, 105.695897, 107.780156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 109.0, "volume": 5536, "typical_volume": 10324.95, "trend": 109.922627, "fair_value": 120.888494, "relative_strength": -8.525381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.659017, "energy": 22.063786, "activity_lines": [ 105.333333, 105.2, 105.81522, 107.712326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.5, "volume": 22151, "typical_volume": 9851.85, "trend": 109.710477, "fair_value": 120.691048, "relative_strength": -13.279083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.254732, "energy": 17.659116, "activity_lines": [ 105.333333, 105.072727, 105.574301, 107.362479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.0, "volume": 9988, "typical_volume": 9726.15, "trend": 109.515237, "fair_value": 120.556952, "relative_strength": -8.893706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.376748, "energy": 9.164184, "activity_lines": [ 107.5, 106.1, 106.001762, 107.445674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.0, "volume": 17026, "typical_volume": 9982.55, "trend": 109.20327, "fair_value": 120.385702, "relative_strength": -14.176318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.722069, "energy": 14.040605, "activity_lines": [ 107.3, 106.127273, 105.957143, 107.218885 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }