{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53bcf2dd-60f7-48f3-99de-88e053e47484", "symbol": "603698", "name": "Changzheng Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.21, "architecture_energy": 80.575, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.32, "rotation_up": 13.36, "upward_expansion": 23.36, "deceleration": 31.4, "rotation_down": 77.0, "downward_expansion": 92.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.399334, 29.636545, 33.139399, 33.95705 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.040001, "trend_reference": 35.175689, "distance_from_trend": -0.316573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.53924, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230345, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.429913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29762, "excess_performance": -0.254416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.316573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074547, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230345, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.268195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.815599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.701271, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101197766, "relative_activity": 0.917436, "balance": 0.701271, "dry_up": 1.136499, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.243491, "annualized_volatility": 1.171338, "from_high_reference": -0.502239, "from_low_reference": 0.452674 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.175689, "fair_value_reference": 19.53924, "structural_low": 20.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.00156, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.015696, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.279242, "worst_return": -0.130715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014957, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049268, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.197694, "worst_return": -0.193174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008241, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.106518, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.307042, "worst_return": -0.251163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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21.26, "volume": 180464252, "typical_volume": 107646166.6, "trend": 36.258107, "fair_value": 19.443459, "relative_strength": -24.145352, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.577358, "energy": 60.97142, "activity_lines": [ 31.385334, 33.615949, 35.528839, 35.661654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.459999, "volume": 107124087, "typical_volume": 108061823.45, "trend": 35.663254, "fair_value": 19.481949, "relative_strength": -23.961995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.859209, "energy": 79.873608, "activity_lines": [ 26.726, 31.236182, 34.18911, 34.706937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.040001, "volume": 101197766, "typical_volume": 110305019.3, "trend": 35.175689, "fair_value": 19.53924, "relative_strength": -17.429913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.210213, "energy": 80.575097, "activity_lines": [ 24.399334, 29.636545, 33.139399, 33.95705 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }