{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53c26305-b507-431f-b6fd-4b23c2f1dde1", "symbol": "RNTX", "name": "Rein Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.279, "architecture_energy": 75.59, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.944, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.52, "rotation_up": 14.41, "upward_expansion": 18.53, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 64.29, "downward_expansion": 89.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.80768, 0.863727, 0.972152, 1.051353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.8175, "trend_reference": 1.13359, "distance_from_trend": -0.27884, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.243354, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.63559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.928459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282895, "excess_performance": -0.470348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12644, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.63559, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419285, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2291542, "relative_activity": 0.764368, "balance": 0.529712, "dry_up": 0.756038, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183449, "annualized_volatility": 0.948279, "from_high_reference": -0.625, "from_low_reference": 0.177954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.13359, "fair_value_reference": 2.243354, "structural_low": 0.694, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.067391, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.046753, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 1.12931, "worst_return": -0.403316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.151882, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.132088, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 3.060345, "worst_return": -0.607781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.288344, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.345115, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.241379, "worst_return": -0.583333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.207182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.109312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013274, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"direction": -62.536284, "energy": 40.987935, "activity_lines": [ 0.93754, 0.957591, 1.073155, 1.124833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7913, "volume": 3161121, "typical_volume": 2839590.75, "trend": 1.162427, "fair_value": 2.255171, "relative_strength": -41.610237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.05619, "energy": 56.802505, "activity_lines": [ 0.886607, 0.923073, 1.038176, 1.099925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7374, "volume": 1959350, "typical_volume": 2911384.8, "trend": 1.14534, "fair_value": 2.249193, "relative_strength": -45.386631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.393938, "energy": 77.175858, "activity_lines": [ 0.826, 0.883458, 1.00001, 1.072504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8175, "volume": 2291542, "typical_volume": 2997958.2, "trend": 1.13359, "fair_value": 2.243354, "relative_strength": -41.928459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.279262, "energy": 75.59015, "activity_lines": [ 0.80768, 0.863727, 0.972152, 1.051353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }