{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53c65e1b-cc50-40a6-8863-14b084b4881d", "symbol": "600333", "name": "Changchun Gas Co,.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.888, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.449, "architecture_energy": 24.399, "architecture_maturity": 10.229, "architecture_confidence": 63.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.73, "rotation_up": 57.08, "upward_expansion": 39.44, "deceleration": 33.11, "rotation_down": 18.72, "downward_expansion": 16.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.761333, 5.614364, 5.59219, 5.598796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.04, "trend_reference": 5.644667, "distance_from_trend": 0.070037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.036859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.19916, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.5839, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028961, "excess_performance": 0.072165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.19916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057451, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045839, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119712, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028961, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.066954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59541263, "relative_activity": 1.063778, "balance": 1.066954, "dry_up": 1.046931, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062659, "annualized_volatility": 0.335537, "from_high_reference": -0.267879, "from_low_reference": 0.227642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.644667, "fair_value_reference": 5.036859, "structural_low": 4.98, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021362, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.013175, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.134367, "worst_return": -0.298419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05499, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.038994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.416021, "worst_return": -0.23913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008963, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038431, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.372591, "worst_return": -0.073836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.029717, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.472868, "worst_return": -0.236253, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035874, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062212, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134904, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069024, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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5.603333, 5.516727, 5.544571, 5.572194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.04, "volume": 59541263, "typical_volume": 55971519.4, "trend": 5.644667, "fair_value": 5.036859, "relative_strength": 4.5839, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.44922, "energy": 24.399293, "activity_lines": [ 5.761333, 5.614364, 5.59219, 5.598796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }