{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53c6ce66-1379-40ee-9a84-6ba8521512cf", "symbol": "000778", "name": "Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.765, "architecture_energy": 44.889, "architecture_maturity": 60.685, "architecture_confidence": 66.097, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.55, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 18.8, "deceleration": 66.38, "rotation_down": 47.53, "downward_expansion": 71.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.758, 3.754859, 3.954889, 4.142379 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.75, "trend_reference": 4.360232, "distance_from_trend": -0.139954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.859836, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.600722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257426, "excess_performance": -0.264825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026662, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 323779760, "relative_activity": 1.37264, "balance": 0.765721, "dry_up": 1.224002, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067895, "annualized_volatility": 0.291397, "from_high_reference": -0.295113, "from_low_reference": 0.062323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.360232, "fair_value_reference": 3.859836, "structural_low": 3.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000804, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004179, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.279605, "worst_return": -0.105882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007576, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008906, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.157738, "worst_return": -0.100961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002574, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048126, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.102811, "worst_return": -0.086539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.866466, "energy": 86.272653, "activity_lines": [ 3.667307, 3.827419, 4.08175, 4.258359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.74, "volume": 290993113, "typical_volume": 237808461.8, "trend": 4.385232, "fair_value": 3.86081, "relative_strength": -11.282537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.29462, "energy": 77.998091, "activity_lines": [ 3.677185, 3.786566, 4.02905, 4.215914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.87, "volume": 301186328, "typical_volume": 235738778.75, "trend": 4.374565, "fair_value": 3.860488, "relative_strength": -6.503434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.705969, "energy": 54.887096, "activity_lines": [ 3.745053, 3.77844, 3.995065, 4.182673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.75, "volume": 323779760, "typical_volume": 235880973.85, "trend": 4.360232, "fair_value": 3.859836, "relative_strength": -13.600722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.765356, "energy": 44.888931, "activity_lines": [ 3.758, 3.754859, 3.954889, 4.142379 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }