{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "53c891f2-4285-4d7c-b8bf-75686d4ad891",
    "symbol": "VHVG",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed World UCITS ETF USD Accumulation",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 75.46,
    "architecture_energy": 48.043,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.941,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.214,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 29.29,
        "rotation_up": 41.63,
        "upward_expansion": 71.56,
        "deceleration": 94.28,
        "rotation_down": 29.27,
        "downward_expansion": 11.89
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        111.965335,
        111.915092,
        110.824572,
        108.730968
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 114.379997,
    "trend_reference": 106.194334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.077082,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 87.998365,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.299797,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.988146,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.131803,
    "excess_performance": 0.080568,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077082,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039343,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.299797,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020842,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029881,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020943,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.131803,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.588117,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 354677,
      "relative_activity": 1.109469,
      "balance": 1.588117,
      "dry_up": 0.985429,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.020875,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.12178,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00591,
      "from_low_reference": 0.257476
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 106.194334,
      "fair_value_reference": 87.998365,
      "structural_low": 96.010002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.026795,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013523,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.072312,
        "worst_return": -0.08789,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.033728,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.002569,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.130094,
        "worst_return": 0.013261,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.091704,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030839,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.124108,
        "worst_return": 0.041355,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.18227,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.010361,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.195259,
        "worst_return": -0.01087,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-03-10",
        "end": "2023-03-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.016512,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-03-31",
        "end": "2023-05-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-06-02",
        "end": "2023-08-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.003195,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-01",
        "end": "2023-09-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009514,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.28397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.001525,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.064171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060807,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01267,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034239,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.04213,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.054607,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.05096,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03699,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 343773.55,
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        "fair_value": 87.169744,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 326127.15,
        "trend": 105.432167,
        "fair_value": 87.436859,
        "relative_strength": 1.718212,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 48.695439,
        "energy": 45.793047,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 110.300003,
        "volume": 271369,
        "typical_volume": 320737.45,
        "trend": 105.783667,
        "fair_value": 87.702724,
        "relative_strength": -0.315528,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.81199,
        "energy": 34.129452,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 114.379997,
        "volume": 354677,
        "typical_volume": 319681.7,
        "trend": 106.194334,
        "fair_value": 87.998365,
        "relative_strength": 2.988146,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.460341,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}