{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53d0742f-0e2f-4920-9f1c-4da514085c13", "symbol": "CAN", "name": "Canal+ SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 63.361, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.526, "architecture_energy": 19.172, "architecture_maturity": 14.372, "architecture_confidence": 47.102, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.29, "rotation_up": 40.18, "upward_expansion": 36.3, "deceleration": 43.12, "rotation_down": 34.0, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.957867, 2.938938, 2.891072, 2.871818 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.128, "trend_reference": 2.930367, "distance_from_trend": 0.067443, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.674435, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.278279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131111, "excess_performance": -0.305358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067443, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112783, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072844, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 3.023129, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065218, "annualized_volatility": 0.54739, "from_high_reference": -0.17467, "from_low_reference": 0.482464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.930367, "fair_value_reference": 2.674435, "structural_low": 2.11, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032343, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 2.295477, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 2.163485, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 2.22303, "volume": 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null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.854, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.71, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.778, "volume": 6117, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 505.85, "trend": 2.931767, "fair_value": 2.668766, "relative_strength": -11.838344, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.735215, "energy": 12.822392, "activity_lines": [ 2.8764, 2.90434, 2.855134, 2.859158 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.128, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 505.85, "trend": 2.930367, "fair_value": 2.674435, "relative_strength": -11.278279, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.525858, "energy": 19.172397, "activity_lines": [ 2.957867, 2.938938, 2.891072, 2.871818 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }