{ "ticker": { "uuid": "53d50ce5-a78f-4cfb-a794-36c6620a10c7", "symbol": "LYRIO", "name": "Amundi MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.194, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.628, "architecture_energy": 26.226, "architecture_maturity": 29.383, "architecture_confidence": 62.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.36, "rotation_up": 40.13, "upward_expansion": 20.85, "deceleration": 43.74, "rotation_down": 17.89, "downward_expansion": 52.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.333, 28.846364, 29.116881, 29.451204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.385, "trend_reference": 29.6765, "distance_from_trend": -0.009823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.099923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272082, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.747172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018701, "excess_performance": -0.101584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272082, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027472, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018701, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.599896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47727, "relative_activity": 1.442139, "balance": 1.599896, "dry_up": 1.032109, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03195, "annualized_volatility": 0.225394, "from_high_reference": -0.123359, "from_low_reference": 0.3838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.6765, "fair_value_reference": 23.099923, "structural_low": 27.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007866, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010232, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.088684, "worst_return": -0.109126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026384, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022203, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.1992, "worst_return": -0.159289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017123, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016857, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169477, "worst_return": -0.127169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.128068, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.041562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.578506, "worst_return": -0.086073, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023589, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057448, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.257993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114532, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126946, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01343, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 7117, "typical_volume": 5582.15, "trend": 19.823333, "fair_value": 18.893929, "relative_strength": 8.055978, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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28.9995, "fair_value": 22.834218, "relative_strength": -4.779312, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.162375, "energy": 67.598335, "activity_lines": [ 27.754666, 28.513545, 29.567, 29.553269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.065001, "volume": 38618, "typical_volume": 24554.9, "trend": 29.061, "fair_value": 22.87534, "relative_strength": -5.207121, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.336159, "energy": 63.870673, "activity_lines": [ 27.812, 28.282545, 29.380571, 29.492978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.795, "volume": 129929, "typical_volume": 30528.3, "trend": 29.165167, "fair_value": 22.919122, "relative_strength": -1.671176, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.946234, "energy": 43.731759, "activity_lines": [ 28.153667, 28.256182, 29.275047, 29.475817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.594999, "volume": 42509, "typical_volume": 30814.95, "trend": 29.2865, "fair_value": 22.958897, "relative_strength": -3.297845, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.286384, "energy": 26.500562, "activity_lines": [ 28.348, 28.241727, 29.161143, 29.439032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.315001, "volume": 22967, "typical_volume": 31100.2, "trend": 29.433167, "fair_value": 23.001173, "relative_strength": -1.008508, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.847717, "energy": 16.477211, "activity_lines": [ 28.743667, 28.413364, 29.128428, 29.440871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.785, "volume": 23426, "typical_volume": 31722.5, "trend": 29.576667, "fair_value": 23.049859, "relative_strength": 0.130304, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.301216, "energy": 25.753944, "activity_lines": [ 29.175, 28.667636, 29.143238, 29.46357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.385, "volume": 47727, "typical_volume": 33094.6, "trend": 29.6765, "fair_value": 23.099923, "relative_strength": -2.747172, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.628191, "energy": 26.225793, "activity_lines": [ 29.333, 28.846364, 29.116881, 29.451204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }